- BoE Governor Bailey warns that the loss of Fed independence risks spillover effects
- The S&P 500 falls to new lows as risk aversion dominates: Will we get another TACO trade?
- The Swiss Franc surges on risk-off flows as US Dollar longs get squeezed. What's next?
- Japan bond yields continue to surge higher on the week
- Gold keeps breaking records, but watch out for these risks that could trigger a selloff
- Dollar drops further as the fallout from Trump's Greenland tariffs continues
- Gold Price Today at All-Time-High but Profit-Taking Risk at $4,760
- What Trump is threatening on Greenland is very different, says Bessent
- What are the main events for today?
- German producer prices post another annual average decline in 2025
- UK November ILO unemployment rate 5.1% vs 5.1% expected
- FX option expiries for 20 January 10am New York cut
- Gold tops $4,700 for the first time as the surge higher continues
- US president Trump: We have to have Greenland
- The risk mood keeps on the defensive as we look towards European morning trade
The main highlight of the session in terms of data releases was the UK employment report. The employment change in the three monhts to November beat expectations, but payrolls decreased in December. The unemployment rate held steady at 5.1%. The data didn't change anything in terms of market pricing.
We also has the German ZEW index beating estimates at 59.6 vs 50.00 expected and 45.8 prior. Again, the reaction to the data was muted here too as it didn't change anything for the ECB.
The focus remains on Greenland and the latest Trump's escalation. The risk-off flows continue to dominate with major stock indices falling to new lows and safe havens like Swiss Franc and precious metals extending gains.
The US Dollar has been the most notable mover in FX as it plunged throughout the session. The de-dollarisation narrative is of course back on the menu, but I would say it's more about the squeeze on the recent US Dollar longs. If we were to get a de-escalation, the greenback could bounce back and return to pre-escalation levels.
The other notable movers have been long-term bond yields, with the Japanese ones catching everyone's attention as 40-yields surpassed 4% for the first time ever. JGBs have been selling off since Takaichi got elected on expectations of more stimulus amid an already worrying fiscal position.
In the American session, we don't have much on the agenda. The focus will be on the potential US Supreme Court decision on Trump's tariffs. The decisions are usually announced around 10:00 ET/15:00 GMT.
We will also get the weekly US ADP jobs data but it's not been a market-moving release lately. We likely need big surprises to trigger a market reaction. Nevertheless, the data has been pointing to gradual improvement in the labour market.
