- Risk mood picks up on murmurs about US-Iran talks
- How have interest rate expectations changed after this week's events?
- Risk sentiment stays on edge as US-Iran stalemate drags on
- EUR/USD extends losses amid the US-Iran stalemate; traders await new catalysts
- SNB's Schlegel: We have unrestricted room to manoeuvre on policy rate, FX interventions
- Germany April Ifo business climate index 84.4 vs 85.5 expected
- USD/JPY crawls toward the 160.00 handle as US-Iran stalemate keeps the US dollar supported
- France April consumer confidence 84 vs 88 expected
- What are the main events for today?
- UK March retail sales +0.7% vs +0.1% m/m expected
- FX option expiries for 24 April 10am New York cut
- Oil prices hold firmer in final stretch of the week as US-Iran stalemate continues
- BOJ may lean more hawkishly next week to ease pressure on the yen - Nomura
As it's been the case since Trump took office, the European session has been mostly rangebound with limited news flow. On the economic data side, the UK retail sales report beat estimates, although the bulk of it came from higher fuel sales. The German IFO, on the other hand, fell to the lowest level since October 2022 as business sentiment tumbled amid the fallout from the Middle East conflict.
On the news front, we haven't got anything meaningful other than SNB's Schlegel reiterating the central bank's commitment to price stability and the potential for negative interest rates and FX interventions to reach their goals.
Just now, the risk sentiment improved as we got reports that Pakistan may announce today that talks between Iran and the US will resume. Other reports are also saying that Iran's foreign minister is expected to arrive in Islamabad tonight.
The optimism is back but the recent track record hasn't been great with markets rallying into the weekend on deal hopes and then giving everything back on Monday as talks fall apart.
