- ECB's Makhlouf: Inflation is in good place, but risks remain
- Heads up: UK Autumn Budget will be in focus tomorrow
- European indices open little changed to start the day
- France November consumer confidence 89 vs 90 expected
- What are the main events for today?
- Eurostoxx futures -0.2% in early European trading
- Germany Q3 final GDP 0.0% vs 0.0% q/q prelim
- FX option expiries for 25 November 10am New York cut
- Mild dollar buying the signal for this month-end - Credit Agricole
- Major currencies keep little changed ahead of European morning trade
- Gold nudges up to start the week but price holds within technical pennant
It's been a snoozefest today as the lack of economic data and limited newsflow kept the price action rangebound. We got a couple of low tier releases that didn't change anything and we heard the same old comments from ECB's Makhlouf reaffirming the ECB neutral stance.
In the markets, it's been pretty boring with very little changes across various asset classes. US equities remain supported amid higher December rate cut odds. The US dollar is slightly stronger. US Treasuries are mostly flat on the day. Gold came under some pressure early in the session, but eventually erased all the losses. Lastly, bitcoin continues the slow recovery from Friday lows.
In the American session, we have a slate of US data although there's only one that will likely matter for the market. In fact, the most important release should be the weekly US ADP jobs data which will include the first week of November. The prior two releases were still for October, so this release could be more important for the market. Tomorrow, we will also get the most recent US Jobless Claims.
We have also the US Consumer Confidence today but the market hasn't been moving on this release for a long time as the focus has been (and still remains) on the labour market.
Lastly, we have the September US Retail Sales and PPI reports today. It goes without saying that this is old data by now and it won't change anything for the Fed, so it shouldn't really matter. The market is now pricing a 70% chance of a December cut and it certainly won't change based on September data. Therefore, I expect the market to largely ignore these two releases.
