- Fed's Daly: I'm not seeing evidence of mass job replacement by AI
- France August trade balance -€5.53 billion vs -€5.56 billion prior
- What are the main events for today?
- World Bank raises China 2025 GDP forecast to 4.8%
- UK September Halifax house prices -0.3% vs +0.2% m/m expected
- Germany August industrial orders -0.8% vs +1.1% m/m expected
- FX option expiries for 7 October 10am New York cut
- Next BOJ rate hike now expected in December instead - SocGen
- Another month, another round of gold buying from China
- Bank of Japan Governor Ueda has cancelled his Wednesday speech, event cancelled
It's been another boring session today given the limited newsflow and lack of key catalysts. With the US government shutdown and the delay in many key US data like jobless claims, NFP and potentially even the CPI next week, the markets are left with pretty much nothing and continue to either consolidate or move by inertia.
The price action in FX resembles the one we got yesterday with the US dollar getting bid in the European session. Since we are close to the average daily range limit now, we might see offers during the American session (all else being equal).
US equity indices have been consolidating around the highs since last Thursday. Gold and bitcoin continue to drift higher. Treasury yields are just erasing last week's weakness for now and further upside will likely need the support from strong US data.
To sum up, as long as we have this shutdown, the markets will have little to work with as things on the fiscal and monetary policy side will remain unchanged.
