- The S&P 500 remains supported by positive macro backdrop, but downside risks linger
- US futures hold caution ahead of the open later
- Silver retreats from a key level as focus turns to US-Iran talks and the NFP report
- Eurozone February final consumer confidence -12.2 vs -12.2 prelim
- ECB president Lagarde: My baseline is that I will stay until the end of my term
- Crude oil in the spotlight as the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks begins in Geneva
- We continue to expect inflation to stabilise at our 2% target in the medium-term - Lagarde
- Dollar on the rocks but may stay supported through month-end - Credit Agricole
- EURUSD stays rangebound as focus turns to US-Iran talks and the NFP report
- Crypto today and what to watch after yesterday's massive rebound
- Gold outlook remains bullish with more room for fresh long positions now - ANZ
- What are the main events for today?
- FX option expiries for 26 February 10am New York cut
- BOJ policymaker Takata: It is currently hard to determine the desirable pace of rate hikes
- Early market reaction shows that the bar for Nvidia may have gotten even higher
It's been a very light session in terms of data and news releases.
The focus today is mainly on the third round of US-Iran nuclear talks in Geneva. We've been getting some positive signals as an Iranian adviser said on X that an immediate agreement could be reached if the US focused solely on Iran’s commitment not to develop nuclear weapons. Moreover, Oman's foreign minister said that negotiators showed "unprecedented openness".
An agreement would certainly be a nice achievement and lead to positive risk sentiment in the market, but unfortunately it's not the first time we get such positive signals that eventually turn out to be nothing more than just words. Nevertheless, oil prices have been falling throughout the session on the positive vibes.
There was no other notable news as ECB President Lagarde just repeated the same old stuff like the ECB will continue to follow a data dependent and meeting by meeting approach, and that they continue to expect inflation to stabilise at 2% in the medium term.
In the American session, the only highlight is the US Jobless Claims data. Initial Claims are expected at 216K vs 206K prior, while Continuing Claims are seen at 1858K vs 1869K prior. The data is unlikely to change anything for the market at this point though, unless we get some meaningful deviations like Continuing Claims falling below 1800K or Initial Claims rising above 260K.
Keep an eye on the US-Iran headlines as talks will resume later today.
