- Nasdaq rebounds as oil prices ease and Trump suggests the war could end soon. What's next?
- US February NFIB small business optimism index 98.8 vs 99.6 expected
- ECB policymakers stress patience, assess if energy price shock is temporary or not
- French finance minister says "not there yet" with regards to release of oil reserves
- The risk mood continues to perk up as we get into European trading
- Gold remains stuck in a tight range as traders await new catalysts to trigger a breakout
- AUD/USD already looking to eye the highs for the year as the market mood picks up
- What are the main events for today?
- There is 180 million barrels of disruption so far, says Saudi Aramco CEO
- RBA policymaker Hauser says oil price and Middle East volatility is a "genuine challenge"
- FX option expiries for 10 March 10am New York cut
- The wild ride continues in the oil market
It's been a pretty calm session with no major news or data releases. The sentiment in the markets is cautiously optimistic after Trump told CBS yesterday that "the war could be over soon".
We got a taste of what is likely to come when we get the real de-escalation as Trump's words triggered a quick relief rally with stocks surging, oil selling off and the US dollar weakening. Traders are now looking forward to the de-escalation, so the upside in the war premium should be limited.
The French finance minister said that they are not there yet with regards to release of oil reserves. It looks like they are just trying to "jawbone" oil prices by keeping this option on the table and being ready to use it.
We've got a couple of ECB policymakers stressing patience on monetary policy as they continue to assess the impact of higher energy prices. All policymakers are of course hoping this war ends soon, so it doesn't require making a hard decision between focusing on inflation and risking a recession or prioritise growth and risk another inflationary spiral.
In the American session, we get the weekly US ADP jobs data which hasn't been a market moving report for a long time, and it's unlikely to be so today. The focus is solely on the war because that's going to influence the data in the future. The data we are getting now is all pre-war, and therefore old news.
