- USDJPY consolidates below the key 160.00 figure as focus turns to US-Iran negotiations
- UK March flash services PMI 51.2 vs 53.0 expected
- Trump wants a deal but negotiations not likely to be successful, says Israeli officials
- Eurozone March flash services PMI 50.1 vs 51.1 expected
- Germany March flash manufacturing PMI 51.7 vs 49.5 expected
- France March flash services PMI 48.3 vs 49.0 expected
- Iran's Supreme Leader reportedly agreed to negotiate with the US and reach an agreement
- The market mood picks up again as we get into European morning trade
- What are the main events for today?
- This oil analysis today at investingLive shows sellers may come out well
- BOJ governor Ueda says underlying inflation is expected to accelerate moderately
- FX option expiries for 24 March 10am New York cut
- Japan says to release about one-month supply of crude oil reserves next
- Market jitters start to creep in again after the cautious optimism yesterday
- Movement along Strait of Hormuz said to still be very tightly controlled for now
The main highlight of the session was the release of the Flash PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. All the PMIs came out lower than expected with just some manufacturing figures beating estimates. The commentary disclosed the real picture though, and that is big spike in inflation and growth fears weighing on economic activity.
The market largely ignored the data since it's now old news given the focus on US-Iran negotiations and potential end to the conflict. In fact, just as the war will likely lead to worse economic data in March, the end of the war could lead to better economic data in the coming months. Markets always look forward.
The other notable news we got was Al Arabiya reporting that sources to Yedioth Ahronoth, Israel's largest paid newspaper, said that Iran's foreign minister Araghchi secretely informed Netanyahu of Mojtaba Khamenei's approval for negotiations and that the Supreme Leader has agreed to negotiate with the US and reach an agreement. This would be in line with what Trump has claimed but given the mixed messages, everyone is still taking these reports with a pinch of salt.
The markets are now mostly rangebound following yesterday's spike. Everyone's wondering if we got the real TACO or it was just the usual jawboning strategy to ease market's stress and lower oil prices before another escalation. Time will tell, but Trump has successfully capped the upside in oil prices and the downside in stocks and bonds.
Now we wait...
