- What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?
- Today's NFP setup is diametrically opposite to the one we had in August
- Eurozone Q2 final GDP +0.1% vs +0.1% q/q expected
- Italy July retail sales +0.0% vs +0.4% expected
- Switzerland consumer confidence -39.9 vs -36.5 expected
- France July trade balance -€5.56 billion vs -€6.1 billion expected
- Putin on Ukraine: There are legal obstacles in Ukraine for potential deal on territories
- Germany July industrial orders -2.9% vs +0.5% m/m expected
- UK July retail sales +0.6% vs +0.2% m/m expected
- Japan July leading economic index 105.9 vs 105.9 expected
- What are the main events for today?
It's been a pretty boring session in terms of newsflow. On the data side, the highlights were the UK retail sales report and the Eurozone final Q2 GDP. The UK data beat expectations, while the Eurozone data came in line with the forecast. The reaction though was muted given that the attention was on the US NFP report.
On the markets side, we basically extended the dovish positioning into the NFP that started yesterday after all the US data releases. The market looks confident that we will get another cool report.
Interestingly, to a question on the NFP report, Trump yesterday told reporters: “They come out tomorrow, but the real numbers that I’m talking about are going to be whatever it is, but will be in a year from now on". People speculated again that the numbers might be lacklustre. This might be another reason for the dovish moves we've seen throughout the session.
Now we just wait for the US and Canadian jobs data before wrapping up the week.
Have a nice weekend all!
