- 4 Key market signals show deep Hormuz disruption despite mixed MSM headlines
- China PMI slows to 50.8 as cost pressures hit two-year high
- UAE push to reopen Hormuz raises prospect of U.S.-Gulf coalition. What's next to come?
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.9025, CNY strongest since 25 March
- UAE pushes to reopen Hormuz by force, raising risk of wider war
- Tankan recap - Japan firms resilient now but warn of worsening outlook ahead
- Japan PMI slows to 51.6 as cost pressures rise and outlook weakens
- Korea triggers sidecar halt (program trades) as KOSPI futures jump 5% on global rally
- Another tanker hit in the Gulf, north of Doha (Qatar)
- Bank of Japan Tankan hits highest since 2021, but outlook softens and profits seen falling
- Recap - Trump says U.S. could end Iran war in weeks without requiring deal
- Australian government offers tax relief and credit support for businesses hit by Iran war
- Australia manufacturing PMI falls to 49.8 as costs surge on Middle East shock
- Trump talks up U.S. exit from Iran within weeks as deal prospects emerge. Believable?
- US-backed firm acquires Congo cobalt miner in strategic win over China
- New Zealand February building permits +2.7% m/m (prior +1.9%)
- UK increases minimum wage to 10.85 GBP. A 1500GBP boost for more than 200K young workers
- US deploys third aircraft carrier to Middle East as Iran tensions persist
- How to pocket $39 million? Easy, just start with $4 billion. Allbirds horror story.
- Major US stock indices have their best day since May 2025, but close lower for the month
- OpenAI lands record $122 billion raise ahead of expected blockbuster IPO. $852bn valuation
- investingLive Americas market news wrap: War optimism dominates markets
In brief:
- Oil edges higher amid ongoing Middle East tensions and mixed signals
- Trump signals imminent U.S. withdrawal (2–3 weeks), no deal required
- UAE moves closer to direct military involvement in Hormuz
- Fresh attacks highlight ongoing escalation risks across Gulf infrastructure
- Japan Tankan solid but cautious; China PMI expansion slows with rising cost pressures
- FX rangebound, gold steady after prior rally
- Focus shifts to Fed speakers and Trump’s prime-time address
Oil prices ticked modestly higher, navigating a complex mix of geopolitical escalation and conflicting signals around the trajectory of the Iran conflict.
On the policy front, U.S. President Donald Trump struck a notably dovish tone on the duration of the war, stating the United States could withdraw “within two to three weeks” and emphasising that a deal with Iran is not required to end military operations. The comments reinforce a growing “mission completion” narrative from Washington, suggesting the administration may be preparing for a near-term exit despite the absence of a formal agreement.
However, developments on the ground continue to point to sustained tension. The United Arab Emirates is reportedly preparing to support efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz by force, a significant shift that would mark the first direct combat role by a Gulf state in the conflict. This underscores a hardening regional stance and raises the risk of broader escalation.
At the same time, hostilities remain active. Reports of strikes continue to filter through, including an attack on an oil tanker near Doha and a drone strike targeting fuel infrastructure at Kuwait International Airport, reinforcing the fragility of energy supply routes and the persistent risk premium embedded in crude markets.
On the data front, Japan’s Tankan survey showed improving business sentiment, with large manufacturers at their strongest levels since 2021, though forward-looking indicators softened and profit expectations declined. In China, manufacturing PMI eased to 50.8 from 52.1, marking a fourth consecutive month of expansion but with slowing momentum and a sharp rise in input cost pressures.
Across markets, major FX pairs traded in relatively tight ranges, while gold consolidated after its recent gains, reflecting a pause in safe-haven momentum.
Looking ahead, attention turns to upcoming Fed commentary, with St. Louis Fed President Musalem (on the economy at 9.05 am US Eastern time) and Governor Barr (on other matters at 9.10am) both scheduled to speak, alongside a highly anticipated prime-time address (9pm US Eastern time) from President Trump on the Iran conflict, which could provide further clarity on the U.S. strategy and timeline.
