- US tightens grip on Iraq over Iran-linked groups, halt dollar flows over militia activity
- JPMorgan sees China property stabilising, boosting outlook for equities.
- Morgan Stanley flags pause in European equities, sees stock pickers market
- Japan exports beat but rising import costs squeeze trade surplus
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 6.8635 (vs. estimate at 6.8233)
- Australia’s growth pulse cools, Leading Index dips below trend
- Trump weighs extending Jones Act waiver. Policy shift eases US fuel costs amid Iran war
- Trump rambling, wants a deal but also threatens to "blow up the rest of their Country"
- Maritime crackdown widens against Iran-linked shipping. Oil tanker seized in Indian Ocean
- JPMorgan raises S&P 500 target to 7,600 (from 7,200). AI, tech earnings drive bullish view
- Japan March trade data: Surplus shrinks. Imports and exports both higher than expected
- JPMorgan turns selectively bearish US dollar post-ceasefire, favour high-yield, risk FX
- Military planners set to bypass the clowns and reopen the Strait of Hormuz themselves
- Canada says USMCA review is a checkpoint, not a cliff
- A wild ride for oil prices with the conflicting US-Iran war headlines
- White House says Vance trip to Pakistan will not happening Tuesday
- Iran's Revolutionary Guard source says will not reopen Hormuz long as blockade continues
- Iran has not yet accepted Trump's ceasefire. Iran says it'll make an announcement soon.
- Trump says will extend ceasefire for now - more to come
Summary:
- Trump extends Iran ceasefire indefinitely as talks stall; blockade remains
- Iran pushes back, calls blockade an act of war, warns it may break it by force
- Reports/rumours of internal Iranian divisions add uncertainty
- Market reaction relatively calm: gold and US futures edge higher
- Oil and FX largely rangebound despite headline volatility
- Japan exports beat expectations, but rising import costs flag risks
Late in the US session, President Trump announced an indefinite extension of the Iran ceasefire as negotiations appear to have stalled, with neither Vice President Vance nor Iranian officials heading to Islamabad at this stage. Trump said the extension is intended to allow more time for diplomacy, though it remains unclear whether Iran or Israel will formally align with the move. Importantly, the US naval blockade will remain in place.
Iranian officials pushed back, arguing that the continued blockade effectively constitutes an act of war, undermining the logic of extending the ceasefire. Tehran also warned it would be prepared to break the blockade by force if it persists, keeping escalation risks firmly in play.
Adding to the uncertainty, unconfirmed reports circulated that an Iranian faction supportive of negotiations with the US had been detained by the IRGC, highlighting potential internal divisions within Iran’s leadership.
Despite the geopolitical tension, markets took a relatively composed view. Gold tracked higher following the headlines. US equity index futures also moved modestly higher. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei climbed to a fresh all-time high, although broader regional equity performance was mixed.
Oil prices traded in a volatile but ultimately rangebound fashion, reflecting the balance between ongoing geopolitical risk and the absence of fresh supply disruption. FX markets were similarly steady, with no clear directional move.
On the data front, Japan’s March trade figures showed exports rising 11.7% year-on-year, beating expectations. However, a narrower-than-expected trade surplus and stronger import growth pointed to rising cost pressures, particularly from energy, and highlighted emerging risks to the outlook.
