- ADB trims Asia growth forecast on U.S. tariffs, warns of further slowdown.
- Citi has trimmed its Brent crude price forecast for 2026 to $62 a barrel, from $65
- China private survey manufacturing PMI (September) 51.2 (expected 50.3, prior 50.5)
- China official manufacturing PMI (September) 49.8 (expected 49.6, prior 49.4)
- Australian building permits (August) -6.0% m/m (expected -5.5%)
- Australia Private Sector Credit (August) +0.6% (expected 0.6%, prior 0.7%)
- Boeing has started working on a 737 MAX replacement, new narrow-body plane in development
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY mid-point today at 7.1055 (vs. estimate at 7.1166)
- Trump signs proclamation imposing lumber tariffs, capped at 15% for EU, Japan.
- China Securities Journal: PBOC set to guide rates lower in Q4 to maintain liquidity.
- New Zealand business confidence steady in September at 49.6 vs. 49.7 prior
- BoJ split deepens: Hawks eye hikes, doves warn on risks
- BoJ Summary (September meeting) is barely shifting the yen
- Japan data - August retail sales -1.1% y/y (expected +1.0%)
- Japan data - August industrial production (preliminary) -1.2% m/m (expected -0.8%)
- Golden Week 2025: China shuts October 1–8, Hong Kong markets closed Octoner 1 and 7
- Shutdown? M'eh. UBS says the Federal Reserve will cut in October anyway.
- South Korea’s industrial output stalls, retail sales drop in August
- UK inflation - shop prices rise at fastest pace since February, BRC warns on levies
- Saturday is the (time) line in the sand for the yen - Koizumi PM win could lift JPY
- RBA hold, preview. TD Securities: RBA unlikely to signal cuts as labour market stays firm.
- Goldman Sachs: Jobs data could decide equity-bond market split
- US Senate Minority Leader Schumer says he would NOT support a 7 to 10 day CR.
- Trump's shut down is the plan to allow mass, permanent, firings of Federal workers
- If the US government shuts down there will be no NFP report on Friday
- US' Schumer says its up to Republicans if they want to shut down - Trump pulls the strings
- RBA today - preview: Westpac tips cash rate hold, still sees November cut as base case.
- investingLive Americas markets wrap: Gold keeps making records
Trump announced fresh tariffs, this time targeting lumber and timber. Duties of 10% — capped at 15% for imports from Japan and the EU — will take effect on October 14, alongside 25% tariffs on kitchen cabinets and some wooden furniture. The dollar briefly popped on the news but failed to hold gains.
From Japan, the Bank of Japan’s September Summary of Opinions provided more colour on the policy debate. While it was already known that two board members pushed for a rate hike at the meeting, the document shed further light on the divide between hawks advocating for a return to normalisation and doves urging caution. The yen saw only minor moves and is little changed overall.
In China, official data showed factory activity contracted at a slower pace in September, with the NBS manufacturing PMI rising to 49.8 versus 49.5 expected — its strongest since March, though still below the 50 threshold. A private survey by RatingDog was more upbeat, with its PMI climbing to 51.2, beating forecasts and marking the highest reading since May.
Markets now turn to the Reserve Bank of Australia decision at 0430 GMT, followed by Governor Michele Bullock’s press conference. The RBA is widely expected to hold the cash rate steady, though traders will focus on guidance amid sticky inflation and a resilient labour market clouding the outlook for further cuts.
Asia-Pac stocks:
Japan (Nikkei 225) -0.05%
Hong Kong (Hang Seng) +0.09%
Shanghai Composite +0.25%
Australia (S&P/ASX 200) -0.01%
