- Reserve Bank of Australia raise its cash rate by 25bps, as widely expected
- BOJ’s Ueda says inflation rising toward 2% ahead of policy meeting - recap
- Tanker struck near Strait of Hormuz as UK maritime agency warns ships
- Australian confidence hits pandemic low as inflation expectations surge before RBA hike
- Fed faces new inflation shock as Middle East war cuts rate-cut odds this year to 47%
- Japan officials signal vigilance on yields, fiscal policy and FX as yen weakness persists
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.8961 (vs. estimate at 6.8874)
- Morgan Stanley sees Fed cuts starting June, warns oil at $125–$150 raises recession risk
- BOJ’s Ueda says inflation rising toward 2% target ahead of March 18 &19 meeting
- Singapore February exports rise 4.0% y/y, missing forecasts of 5.5%
- Heads for Bank of Japan Governor Ueda to speak today at 0020 GMT / 2020 US Eastern time
- CBA says rising oil prices from Iran war could weaken yen via trade balance
- Australian dollar supported as markets bet on RBA rate hikes - preview of today's decision
- UBS forecasts gold rising to $5,900–$6,200 in 2026 on debt and geopolitical risks
- BIS urges central banks to look through oil spike unless Iran conflict persists
- New Zealand Food Price Index +0.1% m/m in February (prior +2.5%)
- Iran denies active talks with US after reports of Witkoff text messages
- Trump has asked China to delay the meeting with Xi for a month
- investingLive Americas FX news wrap 16 Mar:Risk-On Monday: Stocks up, USD down, Oil down
At a glance:
RBA raised the cash rate by 25bp to 4.1% in a split 5–4 decision, warning inflation risks have tilted further to the upside.
AUD initially whipsawed but later weakened, as markets digested the split vote and uncertain growth outlook.
BOJ Governor Ueda said underlying inflation is gradually moving toward the 2% target, reinforcing expectations the BOJ will keep rates steady at 0.75% this week.
Trump requested China postpone his meeting with President Xi, suggesting the Middle East conflict could extend into April.
A tanker was struck by a projectile in the Gulf of Oman near Fujairah, prompting a UKMTO shipping warning near the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil prices rebounded from earlier session lows as geopolitical tensions resurfaced.
The Reserve Bank of Australia raised its cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.1%, delivering the move in a narrow 5–4 split decision that underscored the delicate balance policymakers face between persistent inflation pressures and risks to economic growth.
The central bank said inflation pressures strengthened materially in the second half of 2025 and warned that the balance of risks has shifted to the upside. Policymakers judged that inflation is likely to remain above the 2–3% target range for some time, particularly as higher fuel prices linked to the Middle East conflict threaten to add further price pressure.
The close vote highlighted internal divisions on the board between members focused on inflation risks and those more concerned about slowing economic momentum.
The Australian dollar initially whipsawed on the announcement before moving lower, as markets digested both the rate increase and the split nature of the decision.
In Japan, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda reiterated that underlying inflation is gradually accelerating toward the central bank’s 2% target, while emphasising that sustainable price growth must be supported by wage gains. The remarks reinforced expectations that the BOJ will leave its policy rate unchanged at 0.75% at its meeting later this week.
Geopolitical developments also remained a key focus.
U.S. President Donald Trump has reportedly asked China to postpone his planned meeting with President Xi for a month or longer, citing his focus on the ongoing conflict in the Middle East. Trump had been scheduled to visit China between March 31 and April 2, suggesting the administration may expect hostilities to continue into early April.
Tensions in the region intensified again overnight after Iranian forces struck a tanker in the Gulf of Oman, marking the first successful attack east of the Strait of Hormuz in nearly two weeks.
According to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations centre, a tanker anchored roughly 23 nautical miles east of Fujairah in the United Arab Emirates was hit by an unknown projectile. The vessel sustained minor structural damage but no crew injuries were reported.
The UAE also briefly closed its airspace following a drone strike, highlighting the heightened security environment across the region.
Oil prices moved higher from earlier session lows following the renewed shipping incident, as markets continued to monitor risks to one of the world’s most critical energy transit corridors.
