- Australia inflation jumps again, wiping out rate-cut hopes and lifting AUD, yields - recap
- NZD higher - recapping RBNZ cuts to 2.25% but signals end to easing as NZ economy steadies
- Fed politicization, “Hassett effect” a potential shadow on the USD
- Taiwan warns China speeding up military preparations and intensifying grey-zone pressure
- China accuses Japan, Taiwan’s DPP of provoking tensions and warns against interference
- Recap: Trump drops deadline 4 Ukraine peace deal as U.S. seeks rapid agreement with Russia
- South Korea signals tough action as won weakness and speculative FX trading rise
- RBNZ Gov Hawkseby: Central projection is based on cash rate on hold through 2026
- Yen finds bids after news piece says BOJ ramping up rate hike messaging
- BOJ ramps up signals for near-term rate hike as yen weakness and politics shift
- China accelerates AI factory revolution to protect status as the world’s manufacturing hub
- The People's Bank of China has set the onshore yuan at its strongest since 14 October 2024
- NZD jumped after the RBNZ interest rate reduction decision
- RBNZ cuts its cash rate by 25bp, as widely expected
- Australian dollar jumped after the much stronger than expected inflation data
- Australia CPI (October) 0.0% m/m (-0.2% expected) & 3.8% y/y (3.6% expected)
- Trump bullish on Ukraine-Russia peace, but says no deadline for a deal
- Japanese October Services PPI 2.7% (vs. expected 2.7% & prior 3.0%)
- Daly’s dovish tone boosts SGD as USD softens - MUFG analysis
- More on HP: To cut up to 6,000 jobs as it ramps up companywide AI transformation
- Deutsche Bank sees S&P 500 surging to 8,000 by end-2026
- JPMorgan forecasts EUR/CHF at 0.95 in Q1 2026, rising to 0.96 by Q4 '26
- Alphabet climbs toward $4T as Nvidia slides on rising AI-chip competition
- Deutsche Bank sees euro rising to 1.25 end-2026 (global growth, Europe recover, soft USD)
- Oil - private survey of inventory shows a headline crude oil draw vs. small build expected
- BOJ board turns more hawkish as Ueda keeps December and January open
- investingLive Americas FX news wrap 25 Nov; USD moves lower as rate cut exp. rise to 83%
- HP Q4 revenue beats; 2026 EPS guidance trails, 4k-6k jobs to go
- UK fin min Reeves increases minimum wage by 4.1% ahead of tax-raising Budget - FT
- Trade ideas thread - Wednesday, 26 November, insightful charts, technical analysis, ideas
We had several notable currency moves during the session.
Australia delivered another hotter-than-expected inflation print. The new monthly CPI series showed headline inflation rising 3.8% y/y in October, the fastest in ten months and above the 3.6% median forecast, marking a fourth straight month of re-acceleration since the June trough. The trimmed mean rose to 3.3%, continuing its upward trend and staying above the RBA’s 2–3% target band. With inflation heading the wrong way, you can forget about rate cuts from the Reserve Bank of Australia any time soon. The data gave the Australian dollar a solid lift.
Across the Tasman, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand cut its official cash rate target by 25bps to 2.25%, the lowest since mid-2022, but signalled the easing cycle is effectively over. The Bank now projects the OCR to hold around 2.25% in early 2026 before rising to 2.65% by late 2027, guidance that shuts the door on further cuts. Markets reacted quickly: the New Zealand dollar rallied about 1% to a one-week high and two-year swaps jumped.
The yen strengthened on rising expectations of a near-term Bank of Japan rate hike, with USD/JPY and yen crosses broadly lower. The catalyst was a Reuters report flagging a shift in BOJ communication around the weak yen, suggesting a possible December move. Japan’s 40-year JGB auction, meanwhile, drew demand slightly above its 12-month average as higher yields enticed buyers despite lingering fiscal concerns.
The PBOC set the onshore yuan at its strongest level since 14 October 2024.
In geopolitics:
- President Trump said he has abandoned his self-imposed Thanksgiving deadline for a Ukraine peace deal, noting that talks with Russia and Kyiv are progressing but need more time.
- China accused Japan and Taiwan’s ruling DPP of provoking tensions in the Taiwan Strait, warning that any external interference would face firm retaliation, a headline that helped underpin gold.
Asian equities gained, extending Wall Street’s advance, as weaker U.S. data reinforced expectations for further Fed rate cuts.
Asia-Pac stocks:
- Japan (Nikkei 225) +1.65%
- Hong Kong (Hang Seng) +0.45%
- Shanghai Composite +0.14%
- Australia (S&P/ASX 200) +0.6%
