- RBA unanimous 25bp hike, lifts inflation forecasts and signals more tightening in 2026
- RBA raises its cash rate by 25bp to 3.85%, as widely expected
- China's NPC Standing Committee to hold meeting on February 4 (ahead of full March 5 meet)
- Japanese stocks surge as tech rebounds, banks boost risk appetite. KOSPI rockets.
- ANZ sees RBA 25bp rate hike today, but no commitment to further tightening
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.9608 (vs. estimate at 6.9598).
- Gold’s surge reflects structural demand, Goldman says. Favours gold-equity barbell.
- Australian December 2025 building permits -14.9% m/m (expected -5.7%)
- Japan’s Katayama: Tokyo coordinates regularly with US on FX, declines comment intervention
- ICYMI - Iran signals readiness for US nuclear talks as military tensions rise
- Altman calls Nvidia chip speculation “insanity”, backs partnership
- US cuts tariffs on India to 18% as New Delhi agrees to end Russian oil purchases
- New Zealand December 2025 building permits down m/m but up y/y
- Trump announces critical mineral reserve backed by Exim financing and private capital
- OpenAI explores alternatives to Nvidia AI chips amid inference speed concerns
- investingLive Americas market news wrap: ISM manufacturing soars
- Palantir beat, 2026 guidance beat also
At a glance:
RBA hikes to 3.85%, flags renewed inflation pressure and capacity constraints; guidance remains data dependent
AUD jumps as the RBA’s projected rate path implies close to two further hikes this year
Iran signals willingness to curb nuclear activity, lifting risk sentiment and related equities
Trump unveils US critical minerals reserve, backing supply-chain security with public and private funding
Japan plays down FX intervention talk, stressing coordination with the US
Australian dwelling approvals slump, highlighting housing sensitivity to higher rates
INR rallies after Trump slashes tariffs on India
The RBA raised its cash rate to 3.85%, as widely expected, citing mounting capacity pressures, the fact that inflationary pressures picked up materially in the second half of 2025, and concern that inflation is likely to remain above target for some time. While there was no commitment to a follow-up move, the risks are clearly skewed toward further tightening. The updated cash-rate track implies close to two additional rate hikes this year. The Australian dollar jumped on both the decision and the guidance, though policymakers were careful to stress that future moves remain data dependent.
Geopolitics also provided a risk tailwind. Iran has informed the United States it is willing to shut down or suspend its nuclear programme in an effort to calm Middle East tensions, according to US and Iranian officials cited by the New York Times. Tehran would prefer to revive a proposal floated last year to form a regional consortium for nuclear power production. The headlines supported risk sentiment and related equities.
Separately, Ali Larijani, secretary of Iran’s National Security Council, reportedly met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, delivering a message from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei indicating Iran could ship its enriched uranium stockpile to Russia, echoing arrangements under the 2015 JCPOA.
In the US, Trump announced the creation of a critical minerals reserve aimed at protecting American industry from supply-chain shocks. The plan includes around $10bn in Exim-backed funding and roughly $2bn from the private sector, reinforcing the policy push around strategic materials.
In FX, Japan’s finance minister Katayama declined to comment on whether intervention had occurred and avoided discussing specific levels, while emphasising regular coordination with US authorities, explicitly referencing Treasury Secretary Bessent, and pushing back on claims the government was endorsing a weak yen.
On the domestic data front, Australian dwelling approvals fell 14.9% m/m in December, driven by volatility in medium-density housing. Private dwellings excluding houses dropped nearly 30%, retracing November’s gains. With interest rates rising again, approvals look increasingly vulnerable.
Precious metals surged. As did Japan equities, and South Korean.
Finally, the Indian rupee jumped after Trump moved to slash tariffs on India, providing a fresh boost to sentiment around Indian assets.
Asia-Pac stocks:
- Japan (Nikkei 225) +3.26%
- Hong Kong (Hang Seng) +0.11%
- Shanghai Composite +0.38%
- Australia (S&P/ASX 200) +0.74%
