- Global stocks see biggest selling in a year. Hedge funds ramp shorts (Goldman Sachs data)
- China factory activity hits 1-year high as PMIs return to expansion
- China March official PMIs: Manufacturing 50.4 (exp 50) Non-manufacturing 50.1 (exp 49.9)
- Tokyo inflation cools further but underlying price pressures remain intact
- PBOC sets USD/ CNY central rate at 6.9194 (vs. estimate at 6.9209)
- WSJ: Trump open to ending Iran war without reopening Strait of Hormuz
- RBA March Minutes: Members agreed further tightening would likely be needed
- NZ business confidence and activity collapse. Inflation pressures remain elevated.
- Australia to scrap junior pay rates for 18–20-year-olds in major wage shift
- Japan February retail sales drop below expected and prior, industrial output soft also
- Japan Tokyo Core CPI 1.7% y/y , below expected and prior both 1.8%
- Australia confidence hits record low and inflation expectations hit record high
- UK shop price inflation rises as Iran war lifts supply chain costs
- Tanker hit in Dubai as missiles intercepted in Saudi Arabia, Gulf tensions remain elevated
- Pete Hegseth’s broker looked to buy defence fund before Iran attack – FT
- RBA weighs in, to lower costs for business
- Fed’s Williams says energy outlook tied to markets, core inflation contained
- Reports of 'unknown projectile' hitting a tanker in Persian Gulf near Hormuz, caused fire
- Netanyahu says Israel weakened Iran missile capabilities, destroyed factories
- HSBC says gold behaving like risk asset despite geopolitical tensions, but still supported
- More from Fed's Williams: Monetary policy is in the right place
- Stocks close mostly lower led by small cap stocks
- investingLive Americas FX news wrap 30 Mar: Geopolitics talks lift then rattle markets
- Fed's Williams speaking: Tariffs and Iran war will push headline inflation higher
In brief:
- Iran-linked strike hits Kuwaiti oil tanker in Dubai port; fire reported
- Saudi Arabia intercepts 8 Iranian ballistic missiles targeting Riyadh
- Explosions reported in Isfahan amid ongoing US/Israel strikes
- Gulf states reportedly pushing US toward ground invasion
- Oil reverses gains after Trump signals willingness to end war without reopening Hormuz
- Tokyo CPI continues to cool; China PMIs return to expansion
- RBA minutes reinforce hawkish stance; inflation expectations hit record high
- Equities weaker in Asia; gold higher; FX largely rangebound
Geopolitical tensions escalated further, with multiple flashpoints across the Middle East. Iran struck a fully laden Kuwaiti oil tanker anchored in Dubai’s port, damaging the hull and igniting a fire onboard, according to Kuwait Petroleum Corporation. At the same time, Saudi Arabia reported intercepting eight Iranian ballistic missiles targeting Riyadh, near key military infrastructure.
Further signs of intensification came with large explosions reported in the Iranian city of Isfahan, following strikes attributed to Israel and/or the United States. Separately, reports citing Gulf diplomatic sources suggested the UAE, alongside Kuwait and Bahrain, is pushing for a US ground invasion of Iran, pointing to rising pressure for a broader escalation.
Despite the worsening security backdrop, oil saw sharp two-way price action. Crude initially extended gains on the escalation and tanker strike, but later reversed and moved lower after reports that US President Trump is willing to end the conflict without reopening the Strait of Hormuz, easing immediate fears of a prolonged supply shock. Given the continuing US troop build up in the region this from trump would seem to be misdirection.
On the data front, Tokyo inflation continued to cool across all key measures, with headline, core and core-core readings all slowing to multi-month or multi-year lows, reinforcing the view of near-term softness in Japanese price pressures. In contrast, China’s March PMIs surprised to the upside, with manufacturing returning to expansion and hitting a 12-month high, signalling a rebound in activity.
Central bank developments remained in focus, with the RBA minutes confirming a hawkish tilt. While the Board was split on timing, members broadly agreed further tightening is likely, particularly as inflation risks rise. This was reinforced by an ANZ survey showing inflation expectations have surged to a record high.
Across markets, gold moved higher amid the geopolitical backdrop, while Asian equities weakened, with the Kospi briefly entering bear market territory and Chinese indices posting declines. Major FX pairs traded in relatively tight ranges.
Looking ahead, attention will turn to a scheduled US military briefing on Operation Epic Fury, which may provide further clarity on the trajectory of the conflict. Scheduled for 8am US Eastern time.
