- US posts smallest trade deficit since 2009
- Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow 5.4% vs 2.7% prior
- New York Fed survey sees rising one-year consumer inflation expectations, jobs angst
- US October wholesale inventories +0.2% vs +0.2% expected
- US initial jobless claims 208K versus 210K estimate.
- Preview: December non-farm payrolls by the numbers. Finally past the shutdown fog
Markets:
- Gold up $20 to $4473
- US 10-year yields up 3 bps to 4.17%
- WTI crude oil up $2.64 to $58.63
- S&P 500 flat
- CAD leads, AUD lags
Oil was the spot to watch as the market zeros in on Iran and protests there. The market picked up when there were reports of a cutoff in phones and the internet in an effort to quell protests. That's something of a tell that they're getting beyond what the government can control. It resulting in oil wiping out two prior days of declines.
The US dollar was broadly stronger, trailing only the loonie. The very strong trade balance report led to a big pickup in GDP forecasts as we work through the post-shutdown data mess. That was October data so it's stale but it will be a spot to watch.
Speaking of watching, Friday is a big day with US and Canadian jobs reports. Eyes will be on the Supreme Court at 10 am ET as well for the possibility of a tariff decision.
