- Trump has given Iran another 10 days: "Pausing ... to Monday April 6"
- Trump: Very substantial talks are going on with Iran
- Senior Iran official: No plan for talks appears realistic at this stage
- WSJ. Iran wants US to scale back demands before agreeing to any cease-fire talks
- Mexico central bank lowers benchmark interest rate to 6.75% from 7.00%
- BOC Rogers: Will have a tough job dealing with structural changes to the economy
- Israeli officials have become convinced Trump could soon try to end the war - report
- US sells 7-year notes at 4.255% vs 4.252% WI
- Trump in cabinet meeting: They are begging to make a deal
- Iran officially responded to Trump's peace plan: No deal
- JD Vance working to eliminate Netanyahu from Trump's decision-making circle - report
- US initial jobless claims 210K vs 210K estimate
Markets:
- S&P 500 down 1.75%
- Nasdaq down 2.4%
- WTI crude as high as $95.44
- Gold down $92 to $4412
- US 10-year yields up 7.4 bps to 4.40%
- USD leads, AUD lags
It was another day full of twists, including one after the US equity close (probably not a coincidence) where Trump announced a 10-day delay in his threat to hit Iran's power infrastructure. Trump also said ongoing talks are “going very well”. This time he set a firm deadline of April 6 at 8 pm ET, which is Easter Monday. Of course, this is now the third 'deadline' after he started out with just 48 hours.
The market reaction was immediately positive but it came after some bruising market moves. What's notable as this unfolds in real time is that S&P 500 futures have given back most of the pop. That might reflect some skepticism that anything has really changed or it might reflect skepticism that anything has really changed. From where I stand, it shows that Trump is strongly pushing for a deal and wants this to end. But will Iran see that as weakness?
Notably, we did get an earlier report that the US proposal was seen as excessive by Iran, particularly limiting missiles and regional support and said it was open to talks under more reasonable terms. The US might be willing to offer more or (like Iran accuses) could be using talks as a pre-text to initiate more strikes or activate the troops that are massing. They also might be looking to degrade Iran's ability to strike at regional countries further.
For now, the worst-case scenario is avoided but now we settle in for another 10 days of leaks, threats and ongoing military strikes. This also likely means the Strait of Hormuz won't open in that time frame.
