- No tariff decision from the US Supreme Court today. It could be a long wait now
- Trump press conference as it happens: Playing the greatest hits so far
- Mark Carney lays bare the rupture in the world order, says it will mean a poorer world
Markets:
- Gold up $80 to $4749
- US 10-year yields up 6 bps to 4.29%
- WTI crude oil up 23-cents to $59.57
- S&P 500 down 2.1%
- CHF leads, JPY lags
It was the worst day of the year so far in equity markets and there was no safe haven as bonds sold off as well. The S&P 500 fell more than 2% and the Nasdaq 2.5%, including selling into the close. When you include stocks, bonds and bitcoin, it was the worst cross-asset day since April.
Gold played the role of safe haven, rising 1.7% and hitting a record at $4766. Silver hit $95.87 as well, though it gave back $2 as the day wore on. Gold is now up 9% year to date.
The market was focused on Davos with Trump set to fly there overnight. The President held a press conference that took up most of the US afternoon. It was long-winded and he detailed all his accomplishments in his first year while airing the usual grievances. He conceded he didn't know which way the Supreme Court ruling would go, which is a different message than we heard from Bessent.
Perhaps the most-notable line was on Greenland late in the press conference, where he said that NATO is going to be very happy on Greenland and that the people of Greenland will be thrilled. That perhaps sets the stage for some kind of climb down before the weekend but we will have to wait and see.
The risk of all the Trump noise is that the market misses what's happening in Japan where 30-year yields rose 25 bps today. That's an extremely concerning news as Takaichi launches an election campaign that includes more spending in the heavily-indebted country. This chart should be on everyone's screen.
Looking at the yen, the move on the day was only 10 pips but normally on a brutal risk-off day like today, you would see some genuine yen strength. Instead, it's the worst-performing major currency. That speaks to the underlying weakness. Instead, money is pouring into Switzerland and gold.
Canada's Carney delivered an eye-opening speech in Davos where he outlined the breakdown of the global order and said it's not coming back. He called on middle powers to work together but essentially outlined a world that will grow poorer.
Netflix will report after the close.
