- US November retail sales +0.6% vs +0.4% expected
- US November PPI final demand Y/Y +3.0% vs +2.7% expected
- US Supreme Court doesn't issue decision on tariffs
- Beige Book: Overall activity increased at slight-to-modest pace in most districts
- Fedspeak recap: Odds of a January or March rate cut dwindle
- EIA weekly US crude oil inventories +3391K vs -1702K expected
- US Oct business inventories +0.3% vs +0.2% expected
- US existing home sales 4.35m vs 4.21m expected
- US Q3 current account -226B vs -238B expected
- Trump appears to have decided on a military strike against Iran - Reuters
Markets:
- Gold and silver hit fresh records
- WTI crude oil down $1.15 to $60.06
- US 10-year yields down 2.7 bps to 4.14%
- Bitcoin up 3.8%
- S&P 500 down 0.7%
- JPY leads, USD lags
Eyes were on the Supreme Court today but we didn't get a tariff decision. There was some trepidation in markets ahead of time with stocks sliding but when no ruling was issued, there was a sizeable pop in stocks. Unfortunately, it slowly faded over the day and the S&P 500 was down more than 1% at the lows, with megacap tech names and financials dragging.
Gold and silver were in the spotlight once again with Iran and potential US attacks as a possible catalyst. Beyond that, gold did a nice turnabout to highs after some selling midway through yesterday's US session. That was halted in Asia and there was a steady march higher today and a 7% further pop in silver to $93 for the first time ever.
The FX market was less action-packed as the US dollar mostly slid. The headline on the retail sales report was a touch better but revisions were lower and the core components a drag. Auto sales flattered the headline while better measures of consumer comfort were less-enthusiastic.
Comments from financials on the US consumer and lending outlook were positive but that didn't stop a round of profit taking, including a 4% fall in Bank of America shares. The earnings continue on Thursday.
Oil was hit with a huge build in US gasoline inventories for the second week but with turmoil potentially coming in Iran, the crowded short in crude were getting out of the way in a squeeze as high as $62.36. However later in the day, Trump said that executions had stopped and there was a report that a high-profile one had been postponed. That was seen as de-escalatio and oil quickly fell more than $2/barrel. That's the spot to watch in the day ahead.
