- US December retail sales 0.0% vs +0.4% expected
- Fed's Logan: If inflation falls and labor market stays stable, no further cuts needed
- Fed's Hammack: Inflation is ‘still too high’ and tariff issues still in play
- US November business inventories +0.1% vs +0.2% expected
- US import prices for December 0.1% vs 0.1% expected
- US employment cost index for Q4 0.7% vs 0.8% expected
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 tracker 3.7% vs 4.2% prior
- Preview: January non-farm payrolls by the numbers. The consensus is high
Markets:
- WTI crude oil down 26-cents to $64.10
- Gold down $34 to $5030
- US 10-year yields down 5.7 bps to 4.14%
- S&P 500 down 0.3%
- JPY leads, GBP lags
The US dollar slumped against the yen for the second day and it was helped along by a miss on US retail sales. All the core metrics were soft and the prior numbers were also revised modestly lower. In turn, GDP trackers were ratcheted down as well.
USD/JPY steadily slide to a low of 154.06 with the bottom coming at the London fix and a modest 30 pip recovery.
Elsewhere it was more of a mixed bag for the US dollar as it recovered despite falling Treasury yields across the curve. Stocks sold off late and that also gave the US dollar a lift. One highlight in the equity market was Marriott as the hotelier saw strength in the premium market.
"I mean, there is certainly — pick your description — a K-shaped economic bifurcation of the consumer. We continue to see really consistent strength across luxury for the full year," Marriott CEO Anthony Capuano said.
Wednesday is the release of the non-farm payrolls report and that should ramp up volatility. The consensus is jobs growth of 70,000 in the US along with a big negative revision to the year to April 2025 in the benchmark revision.
