- Trump: We were called this morning by the right people from Iran
- Iran thought they were close to an agreement on Sunday morning - report
- Fed's Goolsbee: Oil futures show this will be a short-run problem (why he's wrong)
- US March existing home sales 3.98m vs 4.06m expected
- Iran officials are studying abandoning enrichment - report
- OPEC says output fell 7.7 mbpd in March. Keeps demand forecast relatively stable
- Canada February building permits -8.4% vs -2.1% expected
- US naval blockade said to not impede neutral transit to or from non-Iranian destinations
- ECB's Vujcic: Energy prices still very close to baseline scenario
Markets:
- WTI crude oil up $1.15 to $97.79
- US 10-year yields down 1.8 bps to 4.299%
- Gold down $4 to $4743
- S&P 500 up 1.0%
- NZD leads, JPY lags
It was another lively day in markets and the theme was positive despite JD Vance's crashout from Iran negotiations. The biggest moves came right at the open in Asia but there was steady improvement in large part because the bombs aren't flying. As the day continued, it was increasingly clear that negotiations were ongoing and then Trump spoke a midday and offered up some positive takes.
It took some time to turn markets but a -50 point day in S&P 500 futures steadily turned to +70 points.
That was validated by other markets as the euro and pound made steady gains against the US dollar. EUR/USD is now within striking distance of pre-war levels and 350 pips from the lows.
The bond market also saw an 8 bps reversal with US 2s down to 3.77% and finishing near the lows of the day. The Fed's Goolsbee made a case for looking beyond the oil price spike.
Most importantly, WTI crude oil tracked down to $98 from as high as $105.63 as it was steadily sold in US hours.
