- Trump: Iran talks 'could be happening over next two days' in Pakistan
- IMF lowers 2026 global GDP growth forecast to 3.1% vs 3.3% prior
- US March PPI final demand 4.0% y/y vs +4.7% expected
- Lebanon ambassador: The preliminary meeting with Israel was good
- Bessent: Trump hasn't opted to raise 10% tariff to 15% "at this time"
- ECB's Lagarde: We are between the baseline and adverse scenarios
- Iran weighs pausing its Hormuz shipping to avoid derailing talks
- ECB's Makhlouf: Not yet seeing changes in consumer behaviour from higher inflation
Markets:
- WTI crude oil down $6.84 to $92.24
- US 10-year yields down 4.9 bps to 4.248%
- Gold up $101 to $4840
- S&P 500 up 1.2%
- NZD leads, USD lags
It was another big day for the peace trade as oil tumbled once again. All indications continue to point towards a deal with Trump talking about a second meeting in Pakistan and remaining positive on the contours of a deal. There wasn't much news on Lebanon but the headlines were somewhat constructive and it's not even clear if that's a deal braker. Iran is reportedly not testing the US Hormuz blockade and that points to progress as well.
The risk is that it could all fall apart with a volatile dealmaker like Trump but so far it remains on track and that's why US stocks are now above where they were pre-war. Oil still has a long ways to go but the market is indicating that even if it doesn't get all the way back the progress has been good enough for the broader economy.
It was a fairly unified trade and the dollar was broadly weaker. In terms of data, PPI was soft and if you exclude the war impacts, there is a growing argument that we're headed back to some kind of pre-2020 inflation regime where it's stubbornly low, particularly as AI disrupts the labor market. I'd argue that if the US turns of the fiscal taps, then that is an even-more compelling argument.
For now though, the data is secondary and all eyes remain on the Middle East.
