- ISM US October services PMI 52.4 vs 50.8 expected
- ADP October US employment +42K vs +28K expected
- Fed's Miran: The ADP report was a welcome surprise
- US EIA weekly crude oil inventories +5202K vs +603K expected
- US October final S&P Global services PMI 54.8 vs 55.2 prelim
- Canada October S&P Global services PMI 50.5 vs 46.3 prior
- Trump says he expects GDP growth in Q3 of 4.2% or more
Markets:
- Gold up $55 to $3987
- US 10-year yields up 6.4 bps to 4.155%
- WTI crude oil down 93-cents to $59.62
- S&P 500 up 0.5%
- Bitcoin up 3.6% to $103,900
- NZD leads, JPY lags
It was a lively day in markets, though less back-and-forth than some of the recent price action. Thankfully, there was some real fundamental news to digest as both ADP and ISM services were a touch hot. That lent some backing to USD/JPY as it reversed an earlier dip to 152.97, up to 154.10.
The strength in the US dollar elsewhere was competing with a strong rebound in risk appetite. Dip buyers emerged after yesterday's rout in the Nasdaq and the Russell 2000 was particularly strong, up 1.8%. Biotechs, airlines, chipmakers and Tesla were standout performers. Notably, Nvidia finished lower as it erased an early gain.
Bonds sold off on the better economic data as the implied odds of a December Fed cut fell to 60% from 68% at the start of the day. Some selling in bonds accelerated as 10s rose above 4.11% and continued to 4.15%.
Oil was beaten up after the glut in US inventory data. That reverses some recent inventory drawdowns and was helped along by Trump talking about $2/gallon gasoline.
Perhaps a far-reaching development was in the Supreme Court where justices listened to arguments about tariffs. Several Republican appointee justices expressed skepticism about some of the arguments in favor of tariffs and that led to gains in some tariff-sensitive names, like automakers.
Qualcomm reports after the closing bell.
