- Trump: A whole civilization will die tonight
- Trump says in 'heated negotiations' with Iran
- Report: Iran 'positively reviewing' the request for a ceasefire
- Pakistan asks Trump to extend deadline for 2 weeks and Iran to open Hormuz for 2 weeks
- Iranian media warns residents to stay off bridges in Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and UAE
- Vance on Iran: Very shortly, this war will conclude
- Hopes for an Iran deal perk up
- Fed's Goolsbee nothing in Federal Reserve act says make the stock/Pres. happy
- US February durable goods orders -1.4% vs -1.0% expected
- Fed's Williams: Iran war will drive up headline inflation
- Tehran Times says diplomatic channels are still open, deletes earlier post
- NY Fed one-year inflation expectations rise to 3.4% from 3.0%
- The US treasury auctions off $58 billion of 3 year notes at a high yield of 3.897%
- Meta advertisers are reducing spending and their AI ad rollout has been flawed - Scotia
- Iran's Kharg Island targeted with several strikes, Iran's Kashan railway bridge hit too
- Senior Iranian source: Tehran has rejected any temporary ceasefire with the US
Markets:
- WTI crude oil down $0.15 to $112.26 after reaching as high as $117.63
- US 10-year yields down 3.2 bps to 4.30%
- Gold up $60 to $4708
- S&P 500 up 0.1%
- AUD leads, USD lags
The day started off with a grim message from Trump talking about destroying Iran's civilization. That note led to some consternation for Trump, even from within his own party. The mood darkened further on headlines from the semi-official Tehran Times that said diplomatic channels had been severed.
But shortly afterwards the Tehran Times deleted the post and said there was still communication and several reports started to highlight talks. Most-optimistic was JD Vance saying the war wound end soon, though that was conditioned by Iran "doing the right thing" so it didn't exactly move the needle.
The real shift came late in the day on a report from Reuters saying that Iran was reviewing a ceasefire proposal positively. That proposal appears to be one from Pakistan calling for a two week path to a permanent end to the war. With that, stocks and oil reversed and Treasury yields hit the lows of the day.
The whole world is now holding its breath ahead of the 8 pm ET deadline. With that, the next few hours will be pivotal.
