- Trump on Ukraine ceasefire: I think we're closer now than we have ever been
- Canada November CPI 2.2% y/y vs 2.3% expected
- US December NAHB housing market index 39 vs 39 expected
- NY Fed manufacturing index for December -3.9 versus 10.0 estimate.
- Fed's Williams: Labor market risks have risen as risk to inflation have eased
- More Fed's Williams: Very supportive of US central bank's decision to cut interest rates
- Fed's Collins: Supported rate cut but it was a 'close call'
- Hassett candidacy received pushback from people close to Trump - report
- Fed's Miran: Prices are "once again stable" and policy should reflect that
Markets:
- Gold up $2 to $4303
- US 10-year yields down 1.4 bps to 4.18%
- Bitcoin down 3% to $85,800
- S&P 500 down 0.15%
- WTI crude down 75-cents to $56.69
- JPY leads, NZD lags
The second half of December got underway with a disappointing day in stock markets. Futures had pointed to a strong day following Friday's rout but the sellers were waiting in the weeds and pounced at the open, taking stocks down. From there it was back-and-forth as late-year flows dominated. Broadcom continued to weigh in a nearly 6% decline and Costco fell to the lowest since August 2024. On the flipside, Tesla rose to the best levels of the year.
The US dollar was generally firmer but there wasn't a solid catalyst. Treasury yields were decently lower early in the day but that steadily unwound. USD/JPY fell as low as 154.68 before rebounding about 40 pips.
Oil came under pressure on the Ukraine ceasefire talks, which seem to have taken on a bit more serious. A series of phone calls took place in Europe, Moscow and Washington that appear to be making progress. Time will tell but any deal that ease sanctions on Russian oil would add to the crude weakness.
