- White House's Hassett: I think the shutdown is likely to end sometime this week
- Bank of Canada business outlook survey: Overall intentions remain subdued
- Canada September producer price index +5.5% y/y vs +4.0% prior
- ECB's Nagel: We can stay in wait-and-see mode on rates
- Trump on Australia: Will discuss critical materials/rare earths
Markets:
- Gold up $125 to $4372
- US 10-year yields down 2.7 bps to 3.98%
- WTI crude oil down 4-cents to $57.50
- S&P 500 up 1.1%
- Nasdaq up 1.4% to all-time high
- AUD leads, CHF lags
The weekend signals about a high-level China-US meeting this week in Malaysia gave the market a strong sense that a deal is coming and led to a strong bid in risk assets. The Nasdaq climbed to a record in a broad, steady bid that snowballed from the start of the day. Adding some fuel might have been a comment from the White House's Hassett that a government shutdown deal was expected this week.
The most-impressive move on the day was gold, which completely recouped Friday's rout and touched a fresh all-time high before retreating in the past few minutes. The buying was modest early in the day but North American traders really stepped on the gas in a sign that Friday's drop was option-related.
The FX market was generally paralyzed. The better risk mood was a tailwind for a number of currencies but the possibility of a US-China deal was positive for the US dollar.
Oil fell to the lowest since May but steadied from as low as $56.35 to bounce by $1.15. Eyes are on the glut that could be forming as OPEC continues to pump more. That's balanced somewhat by ongoing Ukraine attacks on Russian infrastructure.
