- US January CPI +2.4% y/y vs +2.5% expected
- Fed's Goolsbee sees encouraging and concerning parts of the CPI report
- US Supreme Court says next Friday will be a decision day
- US Treasury secretary Bessent says that metals tariffs decision will be up to Trump
- Oil prices dip on report that OPEC+ may resume oil output hikes from April
- The haven from the AI disruption might be a HALO
- BoE's Pill: Disinflation is not as rapid or convincing as hoped
Markets:
- Gold up $112 to $5032
- WTI crude oil down 24-cents to $62.60
- US 10-year yields down 5.4 bps to 4.05%
- Bitcoin up $3000 to $68,815
- GBP leads, AUD lags
- S&P 500 flat
US equity futures were deeply negative ahead of the CPI report but rebounded to unchanged afterwards as the numbers mostly cooled. After the open, bids steadily picked up and the S&P rose nearly 50 points at the peak. But late in the day the bears took over again and sent it into negative territory before a last minute bounce to flat. Shares of Amazon fell for the ninth straight day.
The reaction elsewhere to the data was typically dovish as the US dollar slid and bonds rallied. The strength in fixed income is increasingly noticeable as investors look for a safe haven away from the intense volatility.
The pound led the way on the hawkish comments from BOE chief economist Pill. The initial push came in Europe as cable rose a quarter cent to 1.3625 but after some selling into the London fix there was a second wave of bids late and a finish above 1.3650. Elsewhere it was more of a choppy day in FX with small moves.
Gold posted an impressive rebound following the mysterious gap down yesterday. The $150 straight-line drop has almost been completely recovered as it climbed $80 in North American trade.
Note that Monday is a holiday in Canada and the USA; enjoy the long weekend.
