- Trump News: I think Canada will be very happy on tariffs
- Canada-US trade minister expected to take questions after meeting
- Canada August trade balance -6.32B vs -5.55B expected
- Fed's Kashkari: Too soon to know if inflation will be sticky from tariffs
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q3 remains at 3.8%
- New York Fed consumer survey raises 1 year inflation expectations to 3.4% from 3.2%
- Fed's Miran: Growth in the 1st half of the year was slower than expected amid uncertainty
- Fed's Bostic: AI is disrupting and has the potential to be quite challenging
- US House Speaker Johnson: Hopes furloughed workers receive backpay
- Fed's Bowman does not comment on monetary policy or economic outlook
- Ivey PMI index 59.8 versus 51.2 estimate
- U.S. Treasury sells $58 billion of 3 year notes at a high yield of 3.576%
- Fed's Daly: I'm not seeing evidence of mass job replacement by AI
- Carlyle Group says the US created just 17,000 jobs in September, highlights inflation
Markets:
- WTI crude oil up 37-cents to $62.06
- US 10-year yields down 2.9 bps to 4.13%
- Gold up $20 to $3980
- USD leads, JPY lags
- S&P 500 down 0.4%
It was a lively day in markets despite the lack of any real news or economic data, owing to the ongoing US government shutdown (no progress there). The headline market mover was a report in The Information highlighting how the business model of renting out Nvidia chips is compressing margins. That led to a reversal of gains in shares of Nvidia and some other tech names. It also trigger a broader round of profit taking, including in gold.
That helped to led a bid to bonds and the US dollar, on a modest flight to safety. One asset that isn't benefiting from the usual safe-haven flows is the yen, which fell again today following the selection of a new PM that's seen as fiscally dovish. EUR/JPY hit another record high and USD/JPY rose to the highest since February.
Canada was in focus and the comments coming out of the Trump-Carney meeting were positive. Beforehand, Trump said Canada would be happy and afterwards, Canadian trade minister LeBlanc said he was happy but no details on anything have been worked out. LeBlanc is staying in Washington, however, and so I'd expect something near term with him referencing steel, aluminum and energy as priorities.
