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At a glance:
US stocks closed at record highs despite Washington noise
Tech and consumer staples led; Walmart jump boosted Nasdaq
Financials lagged after Trump floated credit-card rate cap
Dollar slipped on renewed Fed-independence concerns
Gold hit fresh record highs
US equity markets shrugged off a fresh Washington shock on Monday, January 12, finishing with new record closes for the S&P 500 and Dow even as FX traders used the moment to pressure the dollar and rotate toward havens.
Equities: After opening softer on headlines around Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, U.S. stocks found their footing and ground higher into the close. The Dow added 0.17%, the S&P 500 rose 0.16%, and the Nasdaq gained 0.26%, with leadership coming from tech and consumer staples. Walmart jumped around 3% and helped lift the broader tape, with investors also eyeing the stock’s upcoming inclusion in the Nasdaq-100 (effective January 20), which could drive incremental passive inflows. The main pocket of weakness was financials, which lagged after President Donald Trump called for a one-year cap on credit-card rates at 10%. Bank and consumer-finance names were hit hardest, and the sector finished as the key drag even as the major indices printed fresh highs.
FX: The U.S. dollar weakened in Asia and struggled mainly sideways in US trade as the DOJ action against Powell revived concerns over Fed independence and the longer-run policy outlook. The dollar index fell, with the euro up near $1.17 before dripping lower. One notable exception was USD/JPY, which stayed bid around 158.1, with the yen pressured by recent Japan wage data and a narrative that the Bank of Japan’s tightening path may be pushed out. As I update USD/JPY has dipped back under 158.00. Macro attention now swings quickly to Tuesday’s U.S. CPI, a key input into whether the market’s next-cut timing (increasingly centred on mid-year) shifts again.
Gold: In commodities, the session’s clearest “message trade” was in precious metals, where gold surged to fresh record highs above $4,600/oz as investors reached for classic havens amid political and geopolitical uncertainty.
