investingLive Americas FX news wrap 30 Sep: USD moves lower. A US shutdown looking likely.

The USD is ending the day mostly lower (the USD is marginally higher vs the CAD today) with the biggest movers being the USDJPY (-0.44%) and the AUDUSD (+0.56% for the pair - lower USD). The JPY benefitted from a bit of a safe-have bid from the expectations of a US government shutdown at the start of the new trading day tomorrow, and some expectation of a hike in the future from the BOJ.

The AUD was higher after a hawkish tilt to the RBA rate decision (no change).

On the economic calendar today, the Case Shiller home price data was weaker than expectations is a housing market cools in 2025. The JOLTS was a bit stronger than expectations but near the low's recent range. Consumer confidence was lower than expectations and the prior month. Below is a summary for each of the economic releases.

Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index (July)
Home prices rose 1.8% year over year, above expectations of 1.6% but down from a prior 2.1%. On a month-to-month basis, prices fell 0.3% (seasonally adjusted), marking the largest monthly decline in some time. The data point to a cooling housing market, with many metro areas showing softer or even negative gains.
JOLTS Job Openings (August)
Job openings came in at 7.227 million, slightly above the 7.185 million estimate. Hires, quits, layoffs, and separations were little changed, indicating relative stability in labor flows. However, the hiring rate slipped to 3.2%, its weakest level in over a year, and job openings remain well below the peak levels seen during the pandemic rebound.
Consumer Confidence (September)
The Conference Board’s index fell to 94.2 from 97.8 in August, well below the expected 96.0. The present situation component dropped to 125.4, while the expectations index slipped to 73.4. Consumers’ views of current business conditions deteriorated, and perceptions of job availability fell for the ninth straight month, hitting a multiyear low.

In fundamental news, Pfizer struck an agreement with the Trump campaign and administration to offer steep discounts on certain prescription drugs through a new direct-to-consumer platform called TrumpRx, with reductions averaging around 50% and in some cases reaching up to 85%. In exchange, Pfizer secured a three-year exemption from pharmaceutical tariffs that the administration had threatened. The deal also includes a commitment to “most-favored-nation” pricing for Medicaid—meaning U.S. Medicaid patients would, in theory, pay the lowest prices globally. As part of the broader package, Pfizer pledged to invest about $70 billion in U.S. R&D and domestic manufacturing.

While the deal was framed as a win for consumers and the administration’s push to lower drug costs, analysts remain cautious: the actual impact depends heavily on which drugs are included, the magnitude of the discounts, and the feasibility of implementing such pricing nationwide. Some contend that many Americans already benefit from low prices via insurance and rebates, so the direct savings to patients may be more limited than the headline suggests

Fed speak at Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee and Boston Fed Pres. Collins speaking:

Fed’s Austan Goolsbee described the U.S. labor market as “still a pretty steady” one, characterizing the current phase as a period of both low hiring and low firing. He emphasized that the Fed does not view itself as being behind the curve on policy, suggesting confidence in the current policy stance. On inflation, however, Goolsbee struck a more cautious tone, noting that if services inflation continues to rise, he would be “nervous.” He warned against front-loading rate cuts on the assumption that recent inflation moderation is purely transitory, and pointed out that business leaders in the Midwest are already voicing concerns about inflation reaccelerating. He also acknowledged that the absence of Bureau of Labor Statistics data due to potential disruptions, such as a government shutdown, could complicate the Fed’s assessment of the economy and labor market.
Boston Fed President Susan Collins conveyed a cautiously open stance toward further rate cuts, but underscored that any decision must be data-driven. She supported the recent quarter-point cut to 4.00%–4.25%, yet reaffirmed that policy should remain modestly restrictive to balance inflation risks with potential labor market strains. Collins emphasized that while her baseline outlook is “relatively benign,” uncertainties persist—particularly from tariffs and inflation pressures—and that swift or aggressive cuts would risk undermining price stability. If the economy performs as expected, she anticipates gradual easing ahead, but with caution and close monitoring of incoming data.

In other central bank news:

BOE Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli signaled that even temporary rises in inflation might merit a policy response if they threaten to persist. She warned that what appear to be transitory inflation blips could have lasting effects, and suggested that the Bank of England should remain ready to act — potentially even raising rates — if inflation stays elevated.
Later, BOEs Sarah Breeden cautioned that “the path ahead is not assured,” warning of risks on both sides of the policy balance. She emphasized that holding interest rates too high for too long could hurt output and employment, potentially pushing inflation below target if economic activity weakens. At the same time, she remains alert to signs of firms retaining pricing power, which could sustain inflation pressures. Breeden’s remarks suggest the BOE is navigating a delicate juncture—not wanting to ease prematurely, but also wary of overstaying restrictive policy in a slowing economy.

Crude oil futures move lower. There was chatter about OPEC increasing production faster than expectations. That was later denied but the price still remains lower on the day (down $0.94 at $62.51 currently).

Gold moves closer to the $3900 level. It is currently trading up $23.80 or 0.62% at $3856.74.

Bitcoin is trading near unchanged at $114,379.

US stocks are ending the day with gains. The S&P index led the charge with a rise of 0.41%.

Dow rose 81.82 points or 0.18% at 46397.89
S&P index rose 27.25 points or 0.41% at 6688.46
NASDAQ index rose 68.86 points or 0.30% at 22660.01

In the US debt market, yields are closing mixed with the shorter end lower, while the longer end is higher (steeper yield curve).

2-year yield 3.616%, -1.6 basis points
5 year yield 3.746%, +0.5 basis points
10 year yield 4.154%, +1.3 basis points
30 year yield 4.733%, +2.9 basis points

investingLive Americas FX news wrap 30 Sep: USD moves lower. A US shutdown looking likely.

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