- US stocks are trading at new highs
- US October budget deficit $284 billion versus estimate of $235.05 billion
- White House correspondent: US Treasury Secretary has not finished the interviews
- U.S. Treasury sells $70 billion of 5 year notes at a high yield of 3.562%
- Trump: Thinks we are getting very close to deal on Ukraine
- Kevin Hassett is seen as a front runner for the Fed chair
- European indices close solidly higher led by the Spain's Ibex
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q3 falls to 4.0% from 4.2%
- US pending home sales for October 1.9% versus 0.5% estimate
- US consumer confidence for November 88.7 versus 93.4 estimate
- US November Richmond Fed composite index -15 vs -4 prior
- Case Shiller September home prices +0.1% versus 0.1% estimate. YoY 1.4% versus 1.4% est.
- US September PPI +2.7% y/y vs +2.7% expected
- US retail sales for September 0.2% versus 0.4% estimate
- Weekly ADP employment change -13,500 versus -2,500 last week
- Treas Sec Bessent: Will have 2nd interview with Fed Chair nominees today.
- US Treasury Secretary Bessent: Relationship with China in good place
- The USD is lower to kickstart the new trading day. Chips are a focus today
- Fed's Miran: The economy calls for large interest rate cuts
- Nvidia Stock Falls in Pre-Market as Google Expands Its AI Chip Ambitions
The USD moved lower on the day vs all the major currencies. The biggest mover was the fall vs the JPY (-0.52%) and the GBP ahead of the budget tomorrow (-0.47%) The greenback also fell by -0.41% vs the EUR. The other changes were more modest with the greenback falling between 0.06% (vs CAD) and -0.20% (vs the NZD).
The RBNZ is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points in the new trading day.
The NZDUSD moved to the lowest level going back to April 10 and the end of last week. The prices rebounded modestly off of the low at 0.5575, currently trading at 0.5620. The price trades between its 200 hour moving average at 0.5632 on the topside, and the 100 hour MA below at 0.5605. Traders will look for a break in either direction for bias defining clues.
Economic data from the US released today, reflected a mix of delayed reports and fresh indicators due to the recent record-breaking 43-day government shutdown that ended earlier this month. The data presents a picture of an economy grappling with disruptions, showing mixed signals in consumption and inflation while highlighting a distinct hit to consumer sentiment and the labor market.
Retail Sales and Producer Prices (Delayed September Data) Due to the shutdown, the Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics released delayed data for September 2025 today.
Retail Sales: Advance estimates for September retail and food services sales rose 0.2% to $733.3 billion. Excluding auto sales, the increase was slightly stronger at 0.3%. The control group which feeds into GDP fell by -0.1%. That was much less than the 0.3% expected
Producer Price Index (PPI): The PPI for final demand increased 0.3% in September, driven largely by a 3.5% jump in energy prices. Core PPI (excluding food, energy, and trade services) rose 0.2%. On a year-over-year basis, the final demand index moved up 2.7%.
Consumer Confidence (November Data) Fresh data for November from The Conference Board shows a sharp decline in sentiment, likely exacerbated by the recent government shutdown.
Consumer Confidence Index: The index fell to 88.7 in November, down from 95.5 in October. This marks the second-lowest reading since April.
The Present Situation Index dropped to 126.9, while the Expectations Index fell significantly to 63.2, signaling recession concerns among consumers.
Housing Market (September & October Data) Housing data released today covered two different periods, showing resilience in prices but volatility in sales activity.
Case-Shiller Home Price Index (September): The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index rose 1.4% year-over-year in September, a deceleration from the 1.6% from the previous month.
Pending Home Sales (October): The National Association of Realtors reported that pending home sales, a forward-looking indicator based on contract signings, increased 1.9% in October compared to the previous month. There was higher than the 0.5% expected
Labor Market (Private Sector Weekly Data) In the absence of the standard monthly jobs reports (which have been delayed), ADP Research released a weekly "NER Pulse" update.
ADP Employment: For the four-week period ending November 8, 2025, private employers shed an average of 13,500 jobs per week. This suggests an acceleration in job losses following significant workforce reduction announcements from major retailers. The official monthly ADP report is scheduled for release on December 3.
Regionally, the Richmond Fed composite index for November fell to -15 from -4 last month. The services index. Negative at -4 versus 4 last month than the manufacturing shipments failed to -14 from 4 last month.
Expectations for a rate cut in December to be increased to 83%. It was as low as 35% last week before New York Fed Pres. Williams implied on Monday there is room to cut given the restrictive monetary policy.
There was a report midday that White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett was the favorite for Fed chair which was a positive for the doves/stocks.
US stocks fluctuated early in the day as markets reacted to news that Google and Meta are in talks that could shift major AI workloads away from Nvidia and AMD toward Google’s custom Tensor Processing Units (TPUs). Both Nvidia ( -2.59%), and AMD (-4.15%) closed lower but will of their lowest levels. Broadcom, shares rose as it manufactures the Google chips. It rose 1.87%.
Meta rose sharply by 3.78% as if they could use cheaper Google chips, it would lower their capital cost plans.
By the end of the day, the declines were erased down all the major indices closed higher led by the Dow industrial average with a gain of 1.43%. The S&P index rose by 0.91% and the NASDAQ index rose by 0.67%.
In the US debt market, yields move lower on rate cut expectations.
- 2 year yield 3.458%, -3.0 basis points
- 5 year yield 3.563%, -4.1 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.001%, -3.4 basis points
- 30 year yield 4.658%, -1.8 basis points
In geopolitical news, there is renewed hope for peace with Ukraine and Russia. We have been down this road before.
Crude oil is down by the $0.80 and $50.05. Gold is down $5.11 at $4129. Bitcoin is also lower by $1000 and $87,276.
