- Major US stock indices close with solid gains
- White House: US and Ukraine talks have been productive
- Fed's Daly backs a December rate cut
- Crude oil settles at $58.84. Tests the 100 hour MA on the rebound
- White House to delay healthcare proposal
- U.S. Treasury auctions off $69 billion of 2 year notes at a high yield of 3.489%
- Trump: Accepts Xi invite to visit Beijing in April
- ECB's Nagel: Current level of the Euro at $1.16 is not a cause for concern.
- US Industrial output revised to -0.1% from 0.1%. Capacity utilization revised lower
- Major European indices close mixed. France's CAC and Italy's FTSE MIB close lower
- Microsoft Technicals: The price low holds the 200 day MA at $466.89 for 2nd day in a row.
- Dallas Fed manufacturing business index for November -10.40 versus -5.00 last month
- China State Media: China Pres. Xi and US Pres. Trump held call
- Kremlin aid Ushavkov: Many provisions of US drafted Ukraine peace plan seem acceptable
- EU Sefcovic: EU team is set to go to Washington to tackle various issues
- The USD is mixed to kickstart the NA session. The USD is lower vs the EUR & GBP/higher JPY
- investingLive European markets wrap: Risk bounce holds, dollar mixed to start the week
- Fed's Waller: Advocating for a rate cut at the December meeting
- If court strikes down tariffs, there will be new actions imminently - Lutnick
The USD finished Monday mixed, struggling to find a unified direction as traders weighed increasing bets for a December Federal Reserve rate cut against lingering geopolitical risks. While the greenback gained ground against the Yen (+0.31%), NZD (+0.05%) and Loonie (0.05%), it softened slightly against EUR (-0.08%), GBP (-0.11%), CHF (-0.05%) and the AUD (-0.14%).
Key Market Movers (vs. USD):
Japanese Yen (USD/JPY): The Yen was the notable underperformer, with USD/JPY rising 0.31% to 156.87. The pair continues to push higher despite recent verbal warnings from Japanese officials, as the policy gap between the Fed and the BOJ remains a primary driver. Technically, the USDJPY held above the rising 100 hour MA at 156.73. That MA will be a key barometer in the new day for both buyers and sellers. The buyers are currently more in control.
Euro (EUR/USD): The Euro showed resilience, edging higher by 0.08% to 1.1520 but off it's highs for the dar.. Bulls in the Asian Pacific session managed to defend the 1.1500 handle, but after rising and extending above the falling 100 hour MA (currently at 1.15358), the momentum faded and the price moved back below that key MA. The price at 1.1520 sits between support down to 1.1490 and resistance at the falling 100 hour MA at 1.15358.
British Pound (GBP/USD): Sterling ticked up 0.11% to 1.3108, finding mild support ahead of upcoming UK budget details. Technically, the price is between the 100 hour MA at 1.30928 and the 200 hour MA at 1.31232. (at 1.31065).
Swiss Franc (USD/CHF): The Franc strengthened slightly, with the pair dropping 0.05% to 0.8080, reflecting some defensive positioning among traders.The price of the USDCHF is closing above a key swing area between 0.8066 and 0.8076
The "Why" Behind the Moves:
Fed Rate Cut Odds: Markets are now pricing in roughly a 70-75% chance of a rate cut in December following dovish comments from NY Fed President Williams, Fed Govenor Wallers, and SF Fed President Daly.
Holiday Thinner Volume: With U.S. Thanksgiving approaching on Thursday, volume is expected to lighten, potentially leading to choppy or "drift-like" price action.
Geopolitics: Tensions regarding Ukraine/Russia continue to provide a floor for safe-haven assets, preventing a deeper USD selloff.
The US stocks surged higher on the hopes for peace and lower rates. The gains were led by the Nasdaq which surged by 2.69%. The S&P index rose by 1.55%.
US yields are ending the day lower with the:
- 2 year yield 3.501%, -1.3 basis points
- 5 year yield 3.600%, -1.8 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.030%, -3.2 basis point
- 30 year yield 4.673%, -4.1 basis points
In other markets,
- The price of oil rebounded today after last weeks 3.3% fall. The price rose $0.91 or 1.57% to $58.97.
- Gold surged $74 or 1.83% at $4138.49.
- Bitcoin rebounded from lower levels on the day to up close to $2000 currently at $88762. The low reached $85225 before reversing solidly to the upside. Although up from close to $80K on Friday, the price high was close to $125K in October.
