- Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick says Epstein was "the greatest blackmailer ever"
- Gold falls short of the $3900 level and trades lower
- 'Sell the fact' trade hits Tesla shares hard
- Fed's Goolsbee: Real-time indicators show a steady unemployment rate
- Putin: We are ready to continue discussions on Ukraine
- Bank of Canada isn't happy with the mess of core inflation indicators
- US Senate Majority Leader Thune: Unlikely that Senate will have votes over the weekend
- Putin: All the threats of aggressive Russia is plucked up from the air.
- China will set out a 5-year plan this month: What to expect
- European close: Fifth day in a row of gains for the DAX
- Fed's Logan: We need to be very cautious about rate cuts
- Early optimism in US stock markets quickly fade. Tesla turns negative
- Tesla Q3 deliveries 497K vs 444K expected
- The USD is mixed to start the US session. The USDJPY continues to find sellers
- investingLive European markets wrap: Stocks and gold continue push higher again
- US Bessent: We could see hit to GDP from shutdown
- US September Challenger layoffs 54.064k vs 85.979k prior
No weekly claims data or scheduled factory orders as the 2nd day of the government shutdown postponed those releases. The US jobs report has already been postponed tomorrow. The expectations were for a 52K rise in nonfarm payroll. The ADP employment estimate which does not include government workers, came in at -32K on Wednesday. That helped to lower rates and also lock in a October rate cut. The chance for a December cut is also nearly priced in at 89%.
There was some private economic data released today. The Challenger job cuts showed an announced 54,064 job cuts in September, down from 85,979 in August and 26% lower than a year ago. Despite the below number in September, year-to-date layoffs total 946,426, the highest since 2020—now 55% above the same period last year and 24% higher than all of 2024. Challenger notes the government sector has led planned cuts (about 299,755), underscoring signs of a softening labor market despite the monthly improvement.
Fed speakers today included Fed Pres. Logan and Chicago Fed Pres. Goolsbee. Each spoke cautiously about cutting rates which is more in line with Fed chair Powell.
Dallas Fed President Logan struck a cautious tone, emphasizing that inflation remains above target and is trending higher. She said the recent rate cut was “insurance” against a sharper labor-market downturn, but demand is still resilient even as payroll gains have slowed. With the labor market fairly balanced and only gradually cooling, she sees two-sided risks to the Fed’s mandate. Accordingly, she urged being very cautious about further rate cuts, warning that the Fed must avoid easing too much and then having to reverse course.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the immediate impact of the shutdown will be delayed pay for federal workers, while real-time indicators suggest the unemployment rate is holding steady. If official jobs data are delayed, he noted the Fed will make decisions with whatever information it has. He added that policymakers want to be cautious about over-front-loading rate cuts.
The US dollar closed higher on the day as sellers coming into the US session, turned to buyers. Looking at the changes of the major currencies versus the US dollar:
- EUR, +0.09%
- JPY, +0.11%
- GBP, +0.26%
- CHF, +0.06%
- CAD, +0.22%
- HUD, +0.26%
- NZD, unchanged
In the US debt market, yields are ending the day lower:
- 2-year yield 3.542%, -0.2 basis points
- 5 year yield 3.673%, -0.7 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.086%, -1.9 basis points
- 30 year yield 4.692%, -2.2 basis points
Gold is trading lower but midrange after trying to extend above the $3900 level and stalling ahead of the key target. The high price reached $3897 before rotating back to the downside. The low for the day came in at $3819. The current price is trading between those levels at $3857. That is down $8.40 or -0.22%. The move to the downside snaps a 5 day streak of gains with 3 days of record closes.
Crude oil fell below the swing area for between $61.45 and $61.94. The current price is trading at $60.73 down $1.04 or -1.68%
Although the US jobs report will not be released tomorrow, there is the private PMI data scheduled to be released in the US. European markets will also have its PMI data released.
