- More from Fed's Waller: A rebound in labor market would maybe mean no need for cuts
- Fed's Waller says supports a 25bp rate cut at the December 9/10 meeting
- Fed's Waller continues to make the case for cutting rates in December
- Trump says he would be ok with launching strikes against Mexico to stop drugs
- Bitcoin drops to the lowest since April as the bleed continues
- Fed's Cook says Atlanta primary residence was an 'inadvertent notation'
- The thing about wars is that they tend ot develop in ways that you don't expect
- Stop saying that it's not a bubble because Nvidia is only trading at 20x forward earnings
- If I were a Japanese policymaker, this chart would make me very nervous
- Bitcoin technicals: The price of bitcoin breaks below support target.
- US August construction spending +0.2% vs -0.1% expected
- Tech sector turmoil: Google defies odds while semiconductors struggle
- Fed's Jefferson: Need to proceed slowly as mon pol approaches the neutral rate
- A key week for the markets?
- BOE's Mann: The current environment is showing an upward CPI bias
- Empire State Business conditions survey for November 18.7 versus 5.8 estimate
- Canada October CPI inflation 2.2% y/y vs 2.1% expected
- The USD is mixed vs the 3 major currencies to start the US session and the new week.
- investingLive European markets wrap: Dollar little changed, risk optimism pulls back
Markets:
- Gold down -$58 or -1.44% at $4024.79
- US 10-year yields down -2.1 bps to 4.129%. 2 year down -0.8 bps to 3.6059%
- WTI crude down -$0.33 or -0.55% at $59.76
- USD higher vs all the major currencies. AUD -0.80% and NZD -0.53% the weakest on risk off flows.
The US stocks continued its run lower today after trying to move higher earlier in the session. The stronger than expected Empire manufacturing data (18.1 vs 5.8 estimate) reinforced ideas that strong data is not good news for equity markets as traders worry about a Fed that is more hawkish after 50 basis points of cuts in 2025. Inflation closer to 3% vs 2% and employment still steady (from what they see) has taken out a lot of the hope for a December cut (from near 100% to around 35% currently). Trump appointee Miran is on an island with his view that the Fed needs to be more forward looking. Most of the Fed members can be hopeful inflation eases but getting to 2% to most is still well down the road. Moreover, employment is not alarming - at least for now. PS the Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for 3Q rose to 4.1% from 4.0%.
Having said that Fed Vice Chair Jefferson struck a somewhat dovish tone but with caution, emphasizing the need for the Fed to proceed cautiously as policy approaches the neutral rate and downside risks to employment have increased. He noted that he supported last month’s quarter-point rate cut because labor-market risks had risen and said the current policy stance remains somewhat restrictive. Jefferson highlighted that the balance of risks has shifted in recent months, with greater potential downside to employment, while upside inflation risks have eased—especially as tariff-related effects appear temporary. He acknowledged that inflation progress has stalled just below 3% but said available data still point to gradual cooling in both labor supply and demand. Job-market anecdotes remain mixed, with some firms slowing hiring while others continue to add workers and invest. He added that uncertainty remains high heading into the next meeting.
The final numbers in the stock market today shows:
- Dow Industrial Average -557.24 points or -1.18% at 46,590.24
- S&P index - 61.70 points or -0.92% at 6672.41
- Nasdaq -192.51 points or -0.84% at 22708.07
Nvidia will announce it's earning after the close on Wednesday. The shares fell $3.57 or -1.88% at $186.60. The stock is down -13.82% from its high.
The stock anxiety is also being shown in the price of Bitcoin. It is trading to the lowest level since April 22 and is now comfortably below the 100K level after trading as high as $126,272 on October 6th. The low price today reached $91,168 (down nearly -28% from the all -time high).
There is no flight to safety in gold as it reacts to a higher USD. It fell in trading today
The USD saw a run to the upside in the US session after up and down trading coming into the session. The Empire manufacturing data got the ball rolling as traders gear up for more and more data releases this week including the September jobs report and initial jobless claims which will be release on Thursday. Below are a list of the releases scheduled this week:
Tuesday, November 18, 2025
Import and Export Price Indexes (October)
Industrial Production (October)
Capacity Utilization (October)
NAHB Housing Market Index (November)
Wednesday, November 19, 2025
U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services (August) - Delayed
New Residential Construction: Housing Starts and Building Permits (October)
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (November)
Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Meeting Minutes (October Meeting)
Thursday, November 20, 2025
Employment Situation Report (September) - The most critical delayed report, including Non-Farm Payrolls
Real Earnings (September)
Existing Home Sales (October)
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims (Latest week)
Friday, November 21, 2025
S&P Global Flash Manufacturing PMI (November - Preliminary)
S&P Global Flash Services PMI (November - Preliminary)
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (November - Revised)
Looking at the changes, the biggest movers were the AUD and the NZD as risk-off sentiment sent those currencies down the most. A snapshot of the moves vs the USD shows:
- EUR +0.30%
- JPY +0.41%
- GBP +0.14%
- CHF +0.33%
- CAD +0.23%
- AUD +0.80%
- NZD _0.50%
