- US and Iran have been in direct contact in recent days - report
- NVDA stock chops: Huang sees "at least $1 trillion" in revenue visibility through 2027
- Oil settles near the lows of the day, falling $5
- One of the greatest oil traders of all-time thinks the Treasury got involved in the market
- Trump: Not happy with the UK.
- European indices off to a positive start for the week
- Trump: Continued in full force over the past few days
- What are the TACO trades?
- US March NAHB housing market index 38 vs 37 expected
- US February industrial production vs +0.2% expected
- March Empire Fed manufacturing survey index -0.20 versus 3.90 estimate
- Canada February CPI +1.8% vs +1.9% expected
- investingLive European markets wrap: Oil off early highs, risk mood picks up for now
- Bessent floats idea that Trump may not visit China to meet with Xi
The markets reversed the trends at the end of the week as the fears from the middle east started to ebb a bit.. At the very least there was a lack of escalation.
Oil prices moved lower by -$5.70 or -5.72% at $93.64. Over the weekend the US did drop bombs on Kharg Island but avoided destroying the oil infrastructure. There were rumblings about a deal to end the war, but Trump in a press conference said that he did not who to deal with and that it appeared they were not ready yet
Yields in the US fell with the two-year down -5.9 basis points at 3.675%, the 10 year note fell back below the 4.25% level with a decline of -6.3 basis points to 4.221%.
Stock prices kicked off the week with gains in both US and Europe. In Europe:
- German DAX: +0.51%
- UK FTSE 100: +0.55%
- France CAC 40: +0.31%
- Spain IBEX 35: +0.18%
- Italy FTSE MIB: +0.07%
US equity markets posted a solid Monday, with all major indices finishing in the green. The S&P 500 and Russell 2000 each gained 1.0%, the Nasdaq led at +1.2%, and the Dow added 0.8%. The dominant theme was de-escalation optimism around the Strait of Hormuz conflict, driving strength in travel names like airlines (UAL:+4.25%, AAL +1.84%, DAL +3.50%)) and cruise lines (RCL: +3.03%,NCLH +5.14%, CCL +3.04%) , while fertilizer stocks like CF Industries (CF: -5.59%)— which had previously benefited from the strait's closure — lagged.
Dollar Tree was the top S&P 500 performer, up 6.4% on improved guidance. Other notable movers included META +2.3% on reports of significant staff reductions, and Nebius surging 15% on a deal with Meta. The caveat to the day's rally: the de-escalation narrative is still more hope than hard evidence.
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang made several major announcements, unveiling the new Groq 3 LPX AI inference chip with a new server configuration featuring eight Groq chips. The company is in full production of co-packaged optical chips for Spectrum X with TSMC, and the next-gen Feynman design will include HBM memory. On the demand side, Huang said Nvidia saw roughly $500 billion in high-confidence purchase orders last year for Blackwell and Rubin, and now sees at least $1 trillion in demand through 2027 — with some computing demand potentially exceeding even that figure. Hyperscalers will account for about 60% of the business, and Huang emphasized that Nvidia's cost per token is the lowest in the world. Nvidia shares rose to high of $188.88 before rotating back down to close at $183.22. The price closed below the 200 and 100 hour MAs at $184.77 and $183.62 respectively.
The USD fell vs the major currencies led by declines in the greenback vs NZD at -1.54% and AUD at -1.33%. The USD fell by 0.80% vs the EUR and -0.75% vs the GBP.
End of Day — Key Fundamental Stories for the day
Monday's data calendar offered a mixed but generally constructive picture for the US economy, with manufacturing showing some cracks while industrial output held steady and housing sentiment ticked higher. In Canada, a cooler-than-expected inflation print gave the Bank of Canada room to breathe, though energy prices threaten to complicate the outlook.
United States data is mixed
The March Empire State Manufacturing Index disappointed at -0.20, well below the 3.90 estimate and down from 7.1 in February. The details were mixed — new orders and employment held up, but shipments fell and delivery times lengthened, pointing to softer production and lingering supply-chain friction. Capital spending plans hit a multi-year high, keeping the overall picture uneven rather than outright weak.
US industrial production rose 0.2% in February, meeting expectations and extending January's rebound. Capacity utilization held at 76.3%, still below its long-run average. Mining was a bright spot with a second straight monthly gain, while utilities slipped. The January–February recovery has largely reversed the softness seen at the end of 2025.
The NAHB Housing Market Index nudged up to 38 in March, beating the 37 estimate but still marking 22 straight months below the 50 neutral line. All three subcomponents improved modestly, though affordability — driven by elevated mortgage rates and construction costs — remains the primary headwind, particularly for lower and mid-range buyers.
Canada inflation comes in lower than expectations
February CPI came in at +1.8% year-over-year, below the 1.9% forecast and sharply lower than January's 2.3%. Much of the drop reflects the unwinding of GST/HST tax holiday base effects. All three Bank of Canada core measures fell to the 2.3–2.4% range, their lowest readings in years — a encouraging sign that inflation is converging toward the 2% target. However, a sharp rise in energy prices since early March could complicate the Bank's path forward,
The Fed will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday before announcing their decision on Wednesday. The expectation is for no change with the market pricing in a 99.1% chance for no change as the fog of war, and prices looms over the Fed.
Nevertheless, Pres. Trump did say the Fed should meet in a special meeting and cut rates.
