- Major US stock indices snap their 5-day win streak
- RBNZ Gov Breman: Key focus is to stay laser focused on core mandate
- Crude oil futures settle at $59.32
- ECB's Kocher: ECB should keep enough powder dry to be able to react quickly if necessary
- White House: Trump to hold meeting with National Security Team on Venezuala
- Costco reportedly joins group of companies that will sue if Trump tariffs are struck down
- Bitcoin is down -$5333 or -5.91% at $85,024. Strategy (MSTR) is a headwind.
- European indices closed mostly lower. German DAX falls over 1%
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow growth estimate for Q3 unchanged at 3.9%
- November US ISM manufacturing index 48.2 vs 49.0 expected
- US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI for November Final 52.2 vs 51.9 last month
- USTR confirms reports that there is an agreement on pharma pricing between US/UK
- Canada S&P Global manufacturing PMI 48.4 versus 49.6 last month
- The USD is lower to kickstart the day, new week and new month in the NA session
- investingLive European markets wrap: Yen gains further, risk sentiment on the rocks
Markets:
- S&P -0.53% Nasdaq -0.38%. First decline after 5 days higher
- 2 year yield 3.534% +4.3 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.088% +6.9 basis points
- Oil up $1 at $59.55
- Gold up $12.50 at $4231.25
- SIlver up $1.58 at $57.95
The S&P Global PMI came in a bit higher than expectations at 52.2 vs 51.9 last month, but the more followed ISM manufacturing index stayed below the 50 level for the 10th month in a row and was also lower than expectations at 48.2 vs 49.0 Some common themes from the respondents:
Tariffs are the dominant drag, raising costs, reducing demand, shrinking margins, and forcing firms to rethink sourcing, staffing, and investment plans.
Economic and policy uncertainty is high, with companies citing government shutdown effects, inconsistent messaging from Washington, and volatile market conditions.
Supply chain challenges persist, including longer lead times, transit delays, reduced supplier availability, and logistical complications in international trade.
Demand remains soft, with customers ordering cautiously, avoiding inventory builds, and showing limited confidence in future conditions.
Companies are restructuring, including staff reductions, divestitures, offshore manufacturing development, and tighter purchasing strategies.
Pricing pressures are volatile, driven by tariffs and unstable markets, forcing firms to adjust sourcing and pricing models.
Forecasting is difficult, with unpredictable trade conditions and unreliable data (including agricultural data disruptions and early-stage/poor-quality AI information)
The USDJPY is the big mover today as the BOJ's Ueda hinted of rate hikes to come. That helped push the USDJPY lower into the US session and below the 61.8% of the move up from the November low at 154.74. The low reached 154.65. However, as yields moved higher, so too did the USD. The pair moved up passed a swing level near 155.04 and though the 50% of the same November range at 155.34.
The GBPUSD had a volatile up and down session with the price moving from a low near 1.3200 to a high of 1.3274 before moving all the way back down to 1.3207 toward the end of day.
The EURUSD moved higher and above the 100 day MA at 1.1642, but could not sustain upside momentum above a swing area up to 1.1659. The price fell back down and closed back below the high from last week at 1.16126 (at 1.1608).
