- US equities make good gains for a second day but fade somewhat late
- Trump will say the Iran war is "winding down" in address, will criticize NATO
- Iran's Pres Pezeskian : Iranian people harbor no enmity toward other nations
- The message from the market: The war will end because Trump wants it to end
- December WTI crude tells a story of moderate disruption. What's the signal?
- French Navy chief speaking regarding the Strait of Hormuz
- White House: Pres Trump to reiterate 2 to 3 week timetable for end of war
- Atlanta Fed GDPNow dips to 1.9% from 2.0% last.
- Both the S&P and NASDAQ are testing key technical bias levels. Bulls and Bears fight
- Trump via Vance told Iran that he's open to ceasefire if Hormuz opened - report
- EIA weekly US crude oil inventories +5451K vs +814K expected
- US business inventories for January -0.1% versus +0.1% estimate
- US March ISM manufacturing 52.7 vs 52.5 expected
- US March S&P Global manufacturing PMI 52.3 vs 52.4 prior
- Canada March S&P Global manufacturing PMI 50.0 vs 51.0 prior
- The USDCHF moves from a higher trend line to a lower trend line. Testing key support.
- BoE's Bailey: I still think markets are getting ahead of themselves by pricing rate hikes
- US February retail sales +0.6% vs +0.5% expected
- US March ADP employment +62K vs +40K expected
- investingLive European markets wrap: Beginning of the end to the US-Iran war?
US stocks closed higher for the second consecutive day, with the Nasdaq leading the gains, up 1.16%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.72% and the Russell 2000 added 0.64%. With more than half the week complete, the major indices are now positioned to snap a five-week losing streak. The S&P 500 is up 3.24% on the week, on pace for its best performance since late November, while the Nasdaq is higher by 4.26%, also tracking its strongest weekly gain since that same period—assuming gains hold into the close.
In the rates market, yields initially moved lower but reversed higher into the close. The 10-year yield rose 2.3 basis points to 4.334%, after dipping to a session low of 4.261%. The 2-year yield increased 1.4 basis points to 3.813%, after trading as low as 3.735%. Meanwhile, oil prices edged lower, trading just below the $100 level at $99.60, down $1.78 on the day but well above the intraday low of $96.50.
The equity market tone remains supported by growing expectations that the Iran conflict may be nearing an end. President Trump is scheduled to speak at 9 PM ET, with indications he may signal that military objectives have largely been achieved and that the conflict is winding down. However, uncertainty remains. The Strait of Hormuz continues to represent a critical geopolitical risk, serving as both a chokepoint for global energy flows and a strategic lever for Iran, even as damage to infrastructure and leadership has been significant. Trump will be critical of the NATO allies for not coming to the US aid in reopening the shipping channels. Of course, it was Trump and Netanyahu who started the war without consultation with the allies.
Yields in the US were supported by better than expected economic data today. The March ADP report provides a steady but unspectacular lead-in to Friday’s NFP release. Private payrolls rose +62K, above the +40K expected, and broadly in line with the prior month (revised to +66K), suggesting the labor market is stabilizing after a soft start to the year. The gains were driven primarily by small businesses (+85K) and concentrated heavily in education and health services, which accounted for the bulk of hiring. Construction also contributed positively, but there were notable offsets from declines in trade/transportation, manufacturing, and hiring at medium and large firms, pointing to uneven underlying demand.
From a policy perspective, the report takes some pressure off the downside risks in employment, but it is far from signaling a reacceleration. Wage growth held steady for job stayers at 4.5%, while job changers saw a modest uptick to 6.6%, indicating some resilience in labor income.
As a prelude to Friday’s NFP, the ADP data leans modestly positive relative to expectations, especially following last month’s sharp -94K surprise decline in payrolls. With consensus looking for a +65K rebound and an unchanged unemployment rate at 4.4%, the ADP report supports the idea of a gradual recovery rather than a sharp bounce, keeping the labor market stable but not strong enough to materially shift the broader Fed narrative on its own.
US retail sales reinforced the narrative of a resilient consumer. February sales rose 0.6%, beating expectations of 0.5%, rebounding from January’s modest decline (revised to -0.1%). The details were equally firm, with ex-autos (+0.5%), ex-autos and gas (+0.4%), and the control group (+0.5%) all exceeding forecasts—an important signal for GDP. On a year-over-year basis, sales accelerated to +3.7% from +3.2%, reflecting steady demand. Strength was led by health care and clothing, alongside solid gains in online retail and food services, although some softness remained in food stores and furniture. Overall, the data underscores a consumer that continues to spend, helping to support broader economic growth despite ongoing geopolitical and macro uncertainties.
The March ISM Manufacturing report came in slightly stronger than expected, with the PMI rising to 52.7 vs 52.5 forecast (from 52.4 prior), marking the strongest level since August 2022 and signaling a third straight month of expansion in the sector. However, beneath the headline, the details were more mixed. Production improved, but new orders slowed to 53.5, suggesting demand is still not accelerating meaningfully, while the employment index remained in contraction (48.7), pointing to ongoing weakness in factory hiring. At the same time, inflation pressures picked up sharply, with the prices paid index jumping to 78.3, and supplier deliveries slowing—both reflecting supply chain disruptions and rising input costs tied in part to geopolitical tensions. Overall, the report shows manufacturing is stabilizing and expanding modestly, but the growth is uneven, with sticky inflation and weak hiring tempering the optimism heading into the broader economic outlook.
The business inventories came in lower than expectations but sales advanced by 0.4% sending the Inventory to Sales ratio to lower levels That could lead to more GDP growth down the road due to a restocking of the shelves to more normal levels.
In the forex market, the USD is ending the day mostly lower against the major currencies, but importantly well off its weakest levels as rising yields and stronger-than-expected economic data helped limit the downside.
The CHF remains the strongest performer, with USDCHF down -0.64%, although the pair has rebounded from its session low of 0.7906 to trade near 0.7941 into the close. The GBPUSD is up 0.59% on the day, but has also pulled back from its high at 1.3346, now trading around 1.3305 and notably back below its 200-hour moving average at 1.3315—a level that tilts the near-term bias more neutral to bearish. Similarly, the EURUSD gained 0.31%, reaching a high of 1.1627, but has eased to around 1.1590 as the session winds down. The EURUSD did extend above its 38.2% of the move down from the February 10 high at 1.1606 but is back below that key upside target, dulling some of the technical victories seen over the last two days.
Overall, while the dollar remains under pressure on the day, the failure to hold at extreme levels suggests sellers are losing some momentum, especially as rates and data begin to offer underlying support for the greenback.
All eyes on Trump tonight (but then again, we all know it will be the typical Best of Trump full of patting himself on the back and pointing the finger of blame for things lot going as well as was hoped.
