IMF lowers German GDP forecasts but the economy still hangs on natural gas

  • New IMF forecasts for Germany
Scholz
  • IMF sees 2022 GDP growth at 1.2% vs +2.0% prior
  • Sees 2023 at +0.8% vs 2.1% prior
  • Sees 2022 inflation at 7.7%
  • Sees 2023 inflation at 4.8% (vs 3.5% prior)

There's no point in forecasting anything in Europe right now until we know how much natural gas Russia will pump. TTF prices are down 5% today as it looks increasingly likely that Russia will turn the taps back on. That said, it also looks increasingly likely they will throttle supplies.

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