Morgan Stanley has raised its short-term oil price outlook following OPEC+’s move to pause production hikes in early 2026, a decision that eased fears of oversupply.
- The bank now forecasts Brent crude to average $60 a barrel in the first half of 2026, up from its previous estimate of $57.50.
The revision reflects the view that output growth from the producers’ group has lagged far behind official targets. Morgan Stanley estimates OPEC+ added only 500,000 barrels per day between March and October this year, well below the pledged 2.6 million barrels, helping to stabilise market expectations around supply.
