How has the Fed pricing changed in the past week?

  • At the start of the week, Fed funds futures showed just roughly 10% odds of a 25 bps rate hike for June

Now, that pricing has moved up to roughly 32% odds especially after the more hawkish headlines from yesterday. A look at the Fed funds futures curve also shows that traders have pared back their expectations on rate cuts. Previously, they saw three rate cuts by year-end and now that has been reduced to just two:

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