Here is what a huge front-run of US tariffs looks like. Now for the bust

  • Finished metal shapes imports boomed, now here comes the bust
Imports of finished metal shapes
Imports of finished metal shapes

When Trump was elected, one of the most-predictable outcomes was a resumption of steel and aluminum tariffs. This chart shows imports of 'finished metal shapes', which is the official way of saying 'things made out of metal'.

That points to a $78 billion excess build-up in US metals imports that will slowly be exhausted. How slowly? At the pre-2025 pace of imports of pre-tariffs of $3.48 billion, it will take 22 months to exhaust.

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