Green light for risk assets?

  • The market firmed up rate cuts bets in September and December as the US CPI came in line with expectations and Retail Sales missed.

The US CPI came in line with expectations while retail sales missed (they are notoriously volatile). The market's pricing didn't change much as Fed swaps price in 50 bps of cuts by year end (up from 45 bps before the release). This should tone down fears of inflation in the short term and lead to positive risk sentiment.

Risk assets like stocks, bitcoin and commodity currencies should be the main beneficiaries in the next few weeks unless we get surprisingly bad jobless claims tomorrow.

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General Risk Warning