Goldman Sachs says OPEC+ decision to start gradually unwinding the 1.65 mb/d of cuts likely primarily reflects that OECD commercial stocks remain low
- says it keeps its Brent/WTI price forecast unchanged for 2025, close to the forwards, and for the 2026 average at $56/$52
- “Risks to our 2025–2026 price forecast are two-sided but skewed modestly to the upside”
- says expect slightly larger surplus in 2026 as upgrades to supply in Americas outweigh downgrade to Russia supply and upgrade to global demand
- revises up its 2026 oil surplus forecast to 1.9 mb/d (vs. 1.7MB/d prior)
- Full 1.65 mb/d unwind is plausible, we assume group will leverage its flexibility to pause quota increases from Jan 2026 under our assumption that OECD commercial stocks start rising noticeably in 2025q4
