Goldman Sachs sees a 25% probability of the US entering a recession in the next 12 months

This latest updated forecast from Goldman Sachs comes via Reuters:

now sees a 25% probability of the United States entering a recession in the next 12 months (previously GS were at 35%)

  • GS cite:

    Continued strength in the labor market
  • and early signs of improvement in the business survey

for their assessment that

  • the risk of a near-term slump has diminished notably

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The jobs report was a stunner, Reuters add that the unemployment rate hit a 53 year low

Bloomberg (may be gated)  with a brief piece outling some of Goldman Sachs' top ideas for next year,

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