Goldman Sachs said the U.S. Supreme Court appears increasingly likely to rule against the administration’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs, following oral arguments that revealed skepticism among several justices about the president’s authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
ICYMI from earlier:
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In a note to clients, Goldman said prediction markets now assign roughly a 10 percentage point lower probability that the Court will uphold the tariffs. A decision is expected between December 2025 and January 2026.
If the Court strikes down the tariffs, Goldman expects it could take several months for the government to refund an estimated $115–145 billion in duties collected by that time. However, the bank added that the administration would likely turn to alternative legal authorities to reimpose similar tariffs, meaning the overall trade impact would remain limited.
Any reductions in tariffs, Goldman said, would probably apply only to smaller trading partners, with little change expected for major economies such as China or the EU.
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Goldman’s view suggests tariff uncertainty may ease only marginally even if the Court rules against the administration, as officials could reimpose similar measures through other channels. Refund processing and temporary tariff gaps may cause short-term market noise.
