Goldman Sachs now sees the SNB delivering more easing following today's lower than expected inflation data
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- GS writes given the SNB's dovish guidance at its September meeting, benign inflation developments, a rise in geopolitical tensions adding further upward pressure to the currency, and Chairman Schlegel's recent comments emphasizing the SNB's commitment to keep CHF appreciation at bay
- GS now expects a further cut of 25bps at the March 2025 meeting, to a terminal rate of 0.5%
- GS sees risks skewed towards more easing in the event of further downside surprises to inflation and CHF strength, and assigns a 40% probability to a 50bps move in December.
