Goldman Sachs NFP preview:
- We estimate non-farm payrolls rose by 190k in January, above consensus of +170k and the three-month average of +170k.
- Alternative measures of employment growth indicated a healthy pace of job creation, and the pace of layoffs—a key determinant of net job growth in January—remained subdued.
- Unemployment rate estimated to remain unchanged at 4.1%
- Average hourly earnings (AHE) expected to rise 0.3% m/m
- Benchmark revisions could reduce cumulative job growth by 818k (Apr 2023 - Mar 2024).
- 300-500k unauthorized immigrants will be inaccurately removed from payroll records, making the downward revision misleading
Earlier preview here:
