Goldman Sachs have revised the probability of a US recession even lower, to 15% (from 20)

Goldman Sachs have been consistently revising their probability of a US recession in 12 months lower and lower. They have been consistently under consensus too . Good for them.

Have it at 15% now, from most recent forecast at 20%.

Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius:

• "We have further reduced our 12-month US recession probability back to 15%, from 20%" in July"
• "This change reflects continued encouraging inflation news, a favourable real income outlook, and the decline in the jobs-workers gap."

Spin it any way you like, GS have been on the right side of this call.