Via Goldman Sachs chief economist Jan Hatzius.
continues to assess the probability of a US recession at 35% within 12 months
The GS projection was 25% prior to the "SVB weekend". Despite being bumped up to 35% their projections is "far below the 65% Bloomberg consensus as well as the view of the Fed staff."
- "[T]he risk of an outright banking crisis has declined sharply, as no additional institutions have failed since SVB weekend, Fed lending to banks has come off the highs, and deposit flight has subsided."
