Gold falls to a fresh low for February

  • Has the seasonal trade run its course?

Gold is vulnerable to a break of the February lows as the US dollar rallies and risk trades sag.

The low on Feb 3 was $1861 and it's now trading at $1860 after putting in an outside day.

Notably, the reversal in gold started on Feb 2 with a similar, albeit larger, outside day that extended further the next day. Could we be setting up for something similar? The volatility in equities isn't a good sign but it may come down to economic data. Tomorrow we get the prelim UMich consumer sentiment survey. I'm not a fan of the quality of that data point but it's market mover and signs of improving consumer confidence would hurt gold and boost the dollar.

Gold daily chart
Gold daily

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